Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobolli
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:00
18 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Flavio Cobolli
Arthur …: 39,7%
Flavio …: 60,3%
¿Por qué Flavio Cobolli?
UTR 14,71 vs 15,33
(-0,71)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Arthur … | Flavio … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,50 | 1,30 | 28,6% |
| Gamdom | 2,90 | 1,46 | 34,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,52 | 1,66 | 39,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Arthur …: +12,6%
Flavio …: -12,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Fery
Ranking
#186
UTR Rating
14,71 Pro
UTR Ranking
#132
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
20/28 = 71,4%
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking
#22
UTR Rating
15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#44
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
12/31 = 38,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -163,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1189 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,1293 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1639,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -168,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 32,7189 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 27,7917 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9032 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 71,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 38,7097 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 68,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4286 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,0286 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0290 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,3571 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0820 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,0988 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,3180 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 60,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 41,2960 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 11,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6633 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4286 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,7937 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4157 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -69,6688 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3773 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2759 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7929 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8765 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,7035 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23128
API ID
15373171
Gamdom ID
601552
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23128,
"api_id": 15373171,
"gamdom_id": 601552,
"player1": "Arthur Fery",
"player2": "Flavio Cobolli",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.5,
"p2": 1.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.9,
"p2": 1.46
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.94,
"p2": 1.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3967,
"prob_p2": 0.6033,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6033,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 186,
"utr_singles": 14.71,
"utr_ranking": 132,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 22,
"utr_singles": 15.33,
"utr_ranking": 44,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.70967741935484,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 132,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 44,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
"utr_diff": -0.7099999999999991,
"rank_ratio": 0.11891891891891893,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": -1639,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.08202764976959998,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 60.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 71.42857142857143,
"surface_wr_p2": 38.70967741935484,
"utr_advantage": -4.703544219940372,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -168,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.129313371720009,
"rank_advantage": -163,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 32.71889400921659,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.098847926267275,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 31,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.028571428571425,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6633165829145728,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.3179723502304146,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.029032258064518146,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.42857142857142855,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.793710669075686,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.415749490440636,
"surface_rank_synergy": -69.66877852171457,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 68.75,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.3571428571428612,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9032258064516129,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 41.29600000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.37728571428571434,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.27590322580645166,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 27.791666666666668,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}