Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobolli
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Flavio Cobolli
Arthur …: 39,7% Flavio …: 60,3%
¿Por qué Flavio Cobolli?
UTR 14,71 vs 15,33 (-0,71) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Arthur … Flavio … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,50 1,30 28,6%
Gamdom 2,90 1,46 34,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,52 1,66 39,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Arthur …: +12,6% Flavio …: -12,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Fery
Ranking #186
UTR Rating 14,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #132
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 20/28 = 71,4%
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking #22
UTR Rating 15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking #44
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 12/31 = 38,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -163,0000
rank_ratio 0,1189
log_rank_ratio -2,1293
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1639,0000
best_rank_diff -168,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 32,7189
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 27,7917
surface_matches_ratio 0,9032
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 71,4286
surface_wr_p2 38,7097
surface_wr_p1_stable 68,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4286
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,0286
first_serve_won_diff 0,0290
second_serve_won_diff -1,3571
bp_saved_diff 0,0820
bp_converted_diff 8,0988
aces_per_match_diff -1,3180
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff 60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 41,2960
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 11,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6633
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 2,7937
serve_consistency_p2 8,4157
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -69,6688
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3773
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2759
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7100
utr_p1 0,7929
utr_p2 0,8765
utr_advantage -4,7035
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23128
API ID 15373171
Gamdom ID 601552
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23128,
    "api_id": 15373171,
    "gamdom_id": 601552,
    "player1": "Arthur Fery",
    "player2": "Flavio Cobolli",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.5,
      "p2": 1.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.9,
      "p2": 1.46
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.94,
      "p2": 1.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3967,
    "prob_p2": 0.6033,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6033,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 186,
      "utr_singles": 14.71,
      "utr_ranking": 132,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 22,
      "utr_singles": 15.33,
      "utr_ranking": 44,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.70967741935484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.71,
      "ranking": 132,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.33,
      "ranking": 44,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7929411764705883,
    "utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_diff": -0.7099999999999991,
    "rank_ratio": 0.11891891891891893,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": -1639,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.08202764976959998,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 60.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2": 38.70967741935484,
    "utr_advantage": -4.703544219940372,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -168,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.129313371720009,
    "rank_advantage": -163,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 32.71889400921659,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.098847926267275,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.028571428571425,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6633165829145728,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.3179723502304146,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.029032258064518146,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.42857142857142855,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.793710669075686,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.415749490440636,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -69.66877852171457,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 68.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.3571428571428612,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9032258064516129,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 41.29600000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.37728571428571434,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.27590322580645166,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 27.791666666666668,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}