Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Marton Fucsovics
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 10:05
18 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marton Fucsovics
Camilo …: 24,0%
Marton …: 76,0%
¿Por qué Marton Fucsovics?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Camilo … | Marton … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,50 | 1,20 | 22,2% |
| Gamdom | 4,60 | 1,23 | 21,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,17 | 1,32 | 24,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Camilo …: +2,9%
Marton …: -2,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking
#49
UTR Rating
14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#117
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
6/18 = 33,3%
Marton Fucsovics
Ranking
#54
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/29 = 72,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 8,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,1702 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,1572 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 79,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -12,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -39,0805 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -26,1111 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6207 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 72,4138 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 36,3636 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,6970 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,2017 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,1092 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -8,5939 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,6299 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 13,2184 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,4655 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -24,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -17,3310 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3158 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1429 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8407 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,3809 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -6,1429 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1747 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2321 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -39,0805 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8035 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8035 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23132
API ID
15372359
Gamdom ID
601120
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23132,
"api_id": 15372359,
"gamdom_id": 601120,
"player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
"player2": "Marton Fucsovics",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T06:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.5,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.6,
"p2": 1.23
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.23,
"p2": 1.22
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2396,
"prob_p2": 0.7604,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7604,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 49,
"utr_singles": 14.77,
"utr_ranking": 117,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 54,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 72.41379310344827,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.77,
"ranking": 117,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8035294117647059,
"utr_p2": 0.8035294117647059,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.1702127659574468,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 8.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": 79,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.629885057471263,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -24.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.6,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 72.41379310344827,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -12,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.15718558352241235,
"rank_advantage": 8,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.14285714285714285,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -39.08045977011494,
"bp_converted_diff": 13.21839080459771,
"p1_surface_matches": 18,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.2017241379310306,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3157894736842105,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.4655172413793105,
"combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.1091954022988375,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.840726883161723,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.380908452697043,
"surface_rank_synergy": -6.142884873289678,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 36.36363636363637,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.6969696969697,
"second_serve_won_diff": -8.593869731800773,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6206896551724138,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -17.331000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -39.08045977011494,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17466666666666675,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.23213793103448266,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -26.111111111111114,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}