Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Marton Fucsovics
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 10:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marton Fucsovics
Camilo …: 24,0% Marton …: 76,0%
¿Por qué Marton Fucsovics?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Camilo … Marton … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,20 22,2%
Gamdom 4,60 1,23 21,7%
IA Fair Odds 4,17 1,32 24,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Camilo …: +2,9% Marton …: -2,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking #49
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #117
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 6/18 = 33,3%
Marton Fucsovics
Ranking #54
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 21/29 = 72,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 8,0000
rank_ratio 1,1702
log_rank_ratio 0,1572
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 79,0000
best_rank_diff -12,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -39,0805
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -26,1111
surface_matches_ratio 0,6207
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 72,4138
surface_wr_p1_stable 36,3636
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,6970
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,2017
first_serve_won_diff -3,1092
second_serve_won_diff -8,5939
bp_saved_diff 5,6299
bp_converted_diff 13,2184
aces_per_match_diff 0,4655
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff -24,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -17,3310
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3158
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1429
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 8,8407
serve_consistency_p2 7,3809
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -6,1429
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1747
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2321
elite_surface_amplifier -39,0805
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8035
utr_p2 0,8035
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23132
API ID 15372359
Gamdom ID 601120
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23132,
    "api_id": 15372359,
    "gamdom_id": 601120,
    "player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
    "player2": "Marton Fucsovics",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T06:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.6,
      "p2": 1.23
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.23,
      "p2": 1.22
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2396,
    "prob_p2": 0.7604,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7604,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 49,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 117,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 54,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 72.41379310344827,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 117,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8035294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.8035294117647059,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1702127659574468,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": 79,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.629885057471263,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -24.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 72.41379310344827,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -12,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.15718558352241235,
    "rank_advantage": 8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.14285714285714285,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -39.08045977011494,
    "bp_converted_diff": 13.21839080459771,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.2017241379310306,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3157894736842105,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.4655172413793105,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.1091954022988375,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.840726883161723,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.380908452697043,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -6.142884873289678,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 36.36363636363637,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.6969696969697,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.593869731800773,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6206896551724138,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -17.331000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -39.08045977011494,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17466666666666675,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.23213793103448266,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -26.111111111111114,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}