Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 13:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 88,4% Adam …: 11,7%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 14,69 (+1,60) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carlos … Adam … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,00 51,00 100,0%
Gamdom 1,01 27,00 99,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,13 8,58 88,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Carlos …: -9,7% Adam …: +9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 37/43 = 86,0%
Adam Walton
Ranking #81
UTR Rating 14,69 Pro
UTR Ranking #130
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 28/54 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 78,0000
rank_ratio 79,0000
log_rank_ratio 4,3694
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 11323,0000
best_rank_diff 73,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 34,1947
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 31,2546
surface_matches_ratio 0,7963
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 86,0465
surface_wr_p2 51,8519
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,9787
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,7241
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 54,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7209
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,0532
first_serve_won_diff 6,6998
second_serve_won_diff 8,6033
bp_saved_diff 5,4146
bp_converted_diff 14,1085
aces_per_match_diff 0,5612
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 49,7250
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 62,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4203
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9588
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 7,2660
serve_consistency_p2 6,9653
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 149,4118
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2825
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0965
elite_surface_amplifier 102,5840
UTR
utr_diff 1,6000
utr_p1 0,9835
utr_p2 0,7953
utr_advantage 10,2828
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23133
API ID 15372343
Gamdom ID 601113
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23133,
    "api_id": 15372343,
    "gamdom_id": 601113,
    "player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Adam Walton",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T09:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0,
      "p2": 51.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 27.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 26.31
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8835,
    "prob_p2": 0.1165,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8835,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.32,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 81,
      "utr_singles": 14.69,
      "utr_ranking": 130,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 54,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 16.32,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.69,
      "ranking": 130,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9835294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.7952941176470588,
    "utr_diff": 1.5999999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 79.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.0,
    "points_diff": 11323,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.41464254952627,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
    "utr_advantage": 10.282776349614394,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 73,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 4.3694478524670215,
    "rank_advantage": 78,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 34.19465977605513,
    "bp_converted_diff": 14.108527131782946,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 54,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.053204134366943,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9587628865979382,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.5611541774332478,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.6998277347114765,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.26599577190823,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.965339172234017,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 149.41178272432455,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.724137931034484,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 8.60327304048235,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7962962962962963,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 49.725,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 102.5839793281654,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 62,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2824651162790698,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09651851851851856,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 31.254585473220835,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}