Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 13:55
18 Ene 2026, 13:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos …: 88,4%
Adam …: 11,7%
¿Por qué Carlos Alcaraz?
UTR 16,32 vs 14,69
(+1,60)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Adam … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,00 | 51,00 | 100,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,01 | 27,00 | 99,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,13 | 8,58 | 88,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Carlos …: -9,7%
Adam …: +9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Adam Walton
Ranking
#81
UTR Rating
14,69 Pro
UTR Ranking
#130
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
28/54 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 78,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 79,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 4,3694 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 11323,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 73,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 34,1947 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 31,2546 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7963 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 86,0465 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,8519 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,9787 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,7241 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 54,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7209 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,0532 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 6,6998 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 8,6033 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,4146 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 14,1085 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,5612 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 49,7250 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4203 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9588 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3750 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,2660 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9653 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 149,4118 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2825 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0965 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 102,5840 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,6000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9835 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7953 | |
| utr_advantage | 10,2828 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23133
API ID
15372343
Gamdom ID
601113
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23133,
"api_id": 15372343,
"gamdom_id": 601113,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Adam Walton",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T09:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.0,
"p2": 51.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 27.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 26.31
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8835,
"prob_p2": 0.1165,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8835,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 81,
"utr_singles": 14.69,
"utr_ranking": 130,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
"wr_surface_wins": 28,
"wr_surface_total": 54,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 130,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7952941176470588,
"utr_diff": 1.5999999999999996,
"rank_ratio": 79.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.0,
"points_diff": 11323,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.41464254952627,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 86.04651162790698,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
"utr_advantage": 10.282776349614394,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 73,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 4.3694478524670215,
"rank_advantage": 78,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": 34.19465977605513,
"bp_converted_diff": 14.108527131782946,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 54,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.053204134366943,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.4203389830508475,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9587628865979382,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.5611541774332478,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 6.6998277347114765,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7209302325581395,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.26599577190823,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.965339172234017,
"surface_rank_synergy": 149.41178272432455,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.97872340425532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.724137931034484,
"second_serve_won_diff": 8.60327304048235,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7962962962962963,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 49.725,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 102.5839793281654,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 62,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2824651162790698,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09651851851851856,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 31.254585473220835,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}