Cristian Garin vs Luciano Darderi
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Cristian Garin
Cristian …: 63,0%
Luciano …: 37,0%
¿Por qué Cristian Garin?
UTR 14,86 vs 15,11
(-0,24)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Cristian … | Luciano … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,65 | 1,54 | 37,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,59 | 2,70 | 63,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Cristian …: +23,3%
Luciano …: -23,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Cristian Garin
Ranking
#82
UTR Rating
14,86 Pro
UTR Ranking
#103
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
6/11 = 54,5%
Luciano Darderi
Ranking
#25
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#80
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
6/20 = 30,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -56,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2040 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -853,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 7,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 24,5455 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 11,1333 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5500 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 11,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0909 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4467 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5567 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,6313 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,9250 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,7100 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,2850 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,3300 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,0909 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,6860 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5400 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7658 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,9776 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7837 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -29,5521 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1015 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2560 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8129 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,5968 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23135
API ID
15372381
Gamdom ID
601080
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23135,
"api_id": 15372381,
"gamdom_id": 601080,
"player1": "Cristian Garin",
"player2": "Luciano Darderi",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.65,
"p2": 1.54
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.55,
"p2": 1.5
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6301,
"prob_p2": 0.3699,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6301,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 82,
"utr_singles": 14.86,
"utr_ranking": 103,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 11,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 25,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 80,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 30.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.86,
"ranking": 103,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.11,
"ranking": 80,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8129411764705883,
"utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 0.3,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 30.0,
"points_diff": -853,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.284999999999997,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 3.552713678800501e-15,
"p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2": 30.0,
"utr_advantage": -1.5968063872255502,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 7,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.2039728043259361,
"rank_advantage": -56,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 24.54545454545454,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.3299999999999983,
"p1_surface_matches": 11,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.6313181818181945,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.54,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7657657657657657,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.090909090909091,
"combined_confidence": 0.5566666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.924999999999997,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.09090909090909091,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.977574851300206,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.783659921001641,
"surface_rank_synergy": -29.552059742545698,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.7099999999999866,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.55,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.686,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10145454545454546,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.25600000000000006,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.133333333333336,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}