Cristian Garin vs Luciano Darderi
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Cristian Garin
Cristian …: 63,0% Luciano …: 37,0%
¿Por qué Cristian Garin?
UTR 14,86 vs 15,11 (-0,24) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Cristian … Luciano … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 2,65 1,54 37,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,59 2,70 63,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Cristian …: +23,3% Luciano …: -23,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Cristian Garin
Ranking #82
UTR Rating 14,86 Pro
UTR Ranking #103
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 6/11 = 54,5%
Luciano Darderi
Ranking #25
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #80
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 6/20 = 30,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -56,0000
rank_ratio 0,3000
log_rank_ratio -1,2040
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -853,0000
best_rank_diff 7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 24,5455
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 11,1333
surface_matches_ratio 0,5500
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 54,5455
surface_wr_p2 30,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 33,3333
p1_surface_matches 11,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0909
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4467
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,5567
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,6313
first_serve_won_diff -3,9250
second_serve_won_diff 1,7100
bp_saved_diff 9,2850
bp_converted_diff -0,3300
aces_per_match_diff -3,0909
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,6860
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5400
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7658
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3000
serve_consistency_p1 5,9776
serve_consistency_p2 6,7837
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -29,5521
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1015
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2560
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2400
utr_p1 0,8129
utr_p2 0,8412
utr_advantage -1,5968
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23135
API ID 15372381
Gamdom ID 601080
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23135,
    "api_id": 15372381,
    "gamdom_id": 601080,
    "player1": "Cristian Garin",
    "player2": "Luciano Darderi",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.65,
      "p2": 1.54
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.55,
      "p2": 1.5
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6301,
    "prob_p2": 0.3699,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6301,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 82,
      "utr_singles": 14.86,
      "utr_ranking": 103,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 25,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 80,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.86,
      "ranking": 103,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 80,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8129411764705883,
    "utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 30.0,
    "points_diff": -853,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.284999999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 3.552713678800501e-15,
    "p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2": 30.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.5968063872255502,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2039728043259361,
    "rank_advantage": -56,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 24.54545454545454,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.3299999999999983,
    "p1_surface_matches": 11,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.6313181818181945,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.54,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7657657657657657,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.090909090909091,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5566666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.924999999999997,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.09090909090909091,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.977574851300206,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.783659921001641,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -29.552059742545698,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.7099999999999866,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.55,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.686,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10145454545454546,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.25600000000000006,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.133333333333336,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}