Dane Sweeny vs Gael Monfils
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 08:05
20 Ene 2026, 08:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Gael Monfils
Dane …: 14,2%
Gael …: 85,8%
¿Por qué Gael Monfils?
UTR 14,51 vs 15,37
(-1,36)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Dane … | Gael … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,67 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,50 | 1,58 | 40,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,06 | 1,16 | 14,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Dane …: -29,0%
Gael …: +29,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dane Sweeny
Ranking
#182
UTR Rating
14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking
#179
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
75% (8p)
WR Hard
8/15 = 53,3%
Gael Monfils
Ranking
#110
UTR Rating
15,37 Pro
UTR Ranking
#37
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
10% (10p)
WR Hard
14/23 = 60,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -72,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6044 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5035 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -225,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -175,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,5362 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -4,1975 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6522 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,8696 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 52,6316 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 59,2593 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -20,9867 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -12,3000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,9000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -11,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,5333 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,8000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 1,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 92,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 71,1160 | |
| current_streak_diff | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,4410 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,0755 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,6951 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,7947 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1053 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0367 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,3600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7306 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8906 | |
| utr_advantage | -9,1336 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23136
API ID
15373163
Gamdom ID
601551
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23136,
"api_id": 15373163,
"gamdom_id": 601551,
"player1": "Dane Sweeny",
"player2": "Gael Monfils",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T04:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.67
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.5,
"p2": 1.58
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.43,
"p2": 1.55
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1416,
"prob_p2": 0.8584,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8584,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 182,
"utr_singles": 14.51,
"utr_ranking": 179,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 75.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 110,
"utr_singles": 15.37,
"utr_ranking": 37,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.86956521739131,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 10.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 179,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 37,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8905882352941177,
"utr_diff": -1.3599999999999994,
"rank_ratio": 0.6043956043956044,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": -225,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -11.5,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 1.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.8,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 92.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.5,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.86956521739131,
"utr_advantage": -9.133646742780385,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -175,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5035263212843791,
"rank_advantage": -72,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.536231884057976,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 15,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": -20.986666666666665,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.4409937888198758,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.533333333333333,
"combined_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 8,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -12.299999999999997,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.06666666666666667,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.075460989269555,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.695097812381681,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.7946911169257582,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.63157894736842,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.25925925925925,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.899999999999999,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6521739130434783,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 71.11600000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10533333333333328,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03669565217391313,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.197530864197528,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
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"feature_importance": {}
}