Daniel Altmaier vs Marin Čilić
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marin Čilić
Daniel …: 41,4% Marin …: 58,6%
¿Por qué Marin Čilić?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniel … Marin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 2,65 1,53 37,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,42 1,71 41,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniel …: +1,7% Marin …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniel Altmaier
Ranking #44
UTR Rating 15,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #48
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 17/38 = 44,7%
Marin Čilić
Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 9/18 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 26,0000
rank_ratio 1,5909
log_rank_ratio 0,4643
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 333,0000
best_rank_diff -41,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,2632
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,8095
surface_matches_ratio 2,1111
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 44,7368
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 45,2381
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 38,0000
p2_surface_matches 18,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1053
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,6000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,2851
first_serve_won_diff -4,5158
second_serve_won_diff -6,8158
bp_saved_diff -2,8026
bp_converted_diff -0,4289
aces_per_match_diff -0,4912
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -22,9450
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 10,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1217
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6923
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4286
serve_consistency_p1 12,6294
serve_consistency_p2 7,6897
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,4437
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0786
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0260
elite_surface_amplifier -5,2632
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8859
utr_p2 0,8859
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23137
API ID 15372386
Gamdom ID 601086
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23137,
    "api_id": 15372386,
    "gamdom_id": 601086,
    "player1": "Daniel Altmaier",
    "player2": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T04:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.65,
      "p2": 1.53
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 17.91,
      "p2": 1.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.414,
    "prob_p2": 0.586,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.586,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 44,
      "utr_singles": 15.32,
      "utr_ranking": 48,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.73684210526316,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.32,
      "ranking": 48,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8858823529411763,
    "utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5909090909090908,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 333,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.80263157894737,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6,
    "surface_wr_p1": 44.73684210526316,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -41,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.4643056081310978,
    "rank_advantage": 26,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.2631578947368425,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.4289473684210563,
    "p1_surface_matches": 38,
    "p2_surface_matches": 18,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.285087719298261,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1216931216931216,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6923076923076923,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.49122807017543924,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.515789473684222,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.10526315789473684,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.62935963399595,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.689679535225485,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.443713727005778,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.23809523809524,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.8157894736842195,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.111111111111111,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -22.945,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -5.2631578947368425,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 10,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07863157894736844,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.026000000000000023,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.8095238095238075,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}