Daniel Altmaier vs Marin Čilić
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 08:45
19 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marin Čilić
Daniel …: 41,4%
Marin …: 58,6%
¿Por qué Marin Čilić?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniel … | Marin … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,65 | 1,53 | 37,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,42 | 1,71 | 41,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniel …: +1,7%
Marin …: -1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniel Altmaier
Ranking
#44
UTR Rating
15,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#48
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
17/38 = 44,7%
Marin Čilić
Ranking
#70
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
9/18 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 26,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5909 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4643 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 333,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -41,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -5,2632 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,8095 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,1111 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 44,7368 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 45,2381 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1053 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,2851 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,5158 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,8158 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,8026 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,4289 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4912 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -22,9450 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1217 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6923 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4286 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,6294 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,6897 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,4437 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0786 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0260 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -5,2632 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8859 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23137
API ID
15372386
Gamdom ID
601086
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23137,
"api_id": 15372386,
"gamdom_id": 601086,
"player1": "Daniel Altmaier",
"player2": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T04:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.65,
"p2": 1.53
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 17.91,
"p2": 1.01
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.414,
"prob_p2": 0.586,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.586,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 44,
"utr_singles": 15.32,
"utr_ranking": 48,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.73684210526316,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 70,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 48,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.5909090909090908,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": 333,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.80263157894737,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -30.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.6,
"surface_wr_p1": 44.73684210526316,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -41,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.4643056081310978,
"rank_advantage": 26,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -5.2631578947368425,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.4289473684210563,
"p1_surface_matches": 38,
"p2_surface_matches": 18,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.285087719298261,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1216931216931216,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6923076923076923,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.49122807017543924,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.515789473684222,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.10526315789473684,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.62935963399595,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.689679535225485,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.443713727005778,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.23809523809524,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.8157894736842195,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.111111111111111,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -22.945,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -5.2631578947368425,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 10,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07863157894736844,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.026000000000000023,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.8095238095238075,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}