Daniil Medvedev vs Jesper De Jong
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 78,3% Jesper …: 21,7%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 14,97 (+0,74) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Jesper … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,06 10,00 94,3%
Gamdom 1,05 13,00 95,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,61 78,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: -12,1% Jesper …: +12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Jesper De Jong
Ranking #73
UTR Rating 14,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #92
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 11/22 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 61,0000
rank_ratio 6,0833
log_rank_ratio 1,8056
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 2147,0000
best_rank_diff 70,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 15,2174
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,1333
surface_matches_ratio 2,0909
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 22,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7333
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,4043
first_serve_won_diff 5,4457
second_serve_won_diff 5,5389
bp_saved_diff 4,0215
bp_converted_diff 2,2638
aces_per_match_diff 0,5099
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,8000
last3_wr_diff 1,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 8,0000
momentum_diff 92,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 63,7410
current_streak_diff 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9767
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6190
serve_consistency_p1 11,8661
serve_consistency_p2 8,3234
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 27,4758
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0912
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0610
elite_surface_amplifier 30,4348
UTR
utr_diff 0,7400
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 4,7927
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23138
API ID 15372350
Gamdom ID 601125
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23138,
    "api_id": 15372350,
    "gamdom_id": 601125,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Jesper De Jong",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T00:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.06,
      "p2": 10.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.05,
      "p2": 13.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.05,
      "p2": 10.61
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7832,
    "prob_p2": 0.2168,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7832,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 73,
      "utr_singles": 14.97,
      "utr_ranking": 92,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.97,
      "ranking": 92,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.7400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 6.083333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 8.0,
    "points_diff": 2147,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.021541501976287,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 1.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.8,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 91.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 4.792746113989638,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 70,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.8055527913603908,
    "rank_advantage": 61,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6190476190476191,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 15.217391304347828,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.2638339920948525,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 22,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.404268774703539,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9767441860465116,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.5098814229249005,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 8,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.445652173913032,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.866133371995296,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.323429488981683,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 27.47580334678856,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.538932806324112,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.090909090909091,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 63.741,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 30.434782608695656,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09117391304347833,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06099999999999994,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.133333333333333,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}