Daniil Medvedev vs Jesper De Jong
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:40
19 Ene 2026, 04:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 78,3%
Jesper …: 21,7%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 14,97
(+0,74)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniil … | Jesper … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,06 | 10,00 | 94,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,05 | 13,00 | 95,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,28 | 4,61 | 78,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniil …: -12,1%
Jesper …: +12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
30/46 = 65,2%
Jesper De Jong
Ranking
#73
UTR Rating
14,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#92
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
11/22 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 61,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,0833 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,8056 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 2147,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 70,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 15,2174 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,1333 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,0909 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,4043 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,4457 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5,5389 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,0215 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,2638 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,5099 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,8000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 1,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 92,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 63,7410 | |
| current_streak_diff | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8483 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9767 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6190 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,8661 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,3234 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 27,4758 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0912 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0610 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 30,4348 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,7400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,7927 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23138
API ID
15372350
Gamdom ID
601125
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23138,
"api_id": 15372350,
"gamdom_id": 601125,
"player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
"player2": "Jesper De Jong",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T00:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.06,
"p2": 10.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.05,
"p2": 13.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.05,
"p2": 10.61
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7832,
"prob_p2": 0.2168,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7832,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 15.81,
"utr_ranking": 8,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 73,
"utr_singles": 14.97,
"utr_ranking": 92,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 8,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 92,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.7400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 6.083333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 8.0,
"points_diff": 2147,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.021541501976287,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 1.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.8,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 91.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 4.792746113989638,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 70,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.8055527913603908,
"rank_advantage": 61,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6190476190476191,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": 15.217391304347828,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.2638339920948525,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 22,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.404268774703539,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9767441860465116,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.5098814229249005,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 8,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.445652173913032,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.866133371995296,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.323429488981683,
"surface_rank_synergy": 27.47580334678856,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.538932806324112,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.090909090909091,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 63.741,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 30.434782608695656,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09117391304347833,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06099999999999994,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.133333333333333,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}