Denis Shapovalov vs Yunchaokete Bu
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Denis Shapovalov
Denis …: 83,1% Yunchaokete …: 17,0%
¿Por qué Denis Shapovalov?
UTR 15,35 vs 14,91 (+0,55) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Denis … Yunchaokete … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,53 2,65 65,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,20 5,90 83,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Denis …: +17,4% Yunchaokete …: -17,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Denis Shapovalov
Ranking #23
UTR Rating 15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #42
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 23/37 = 62,2%
Yunchaokete Bu
Ranking #120
UTR Rating 14,91 Pro
UTR Ranking #97
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 14/33 = 42,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 97,0000
rank_ratio 5,2174
log_rank_ratio 1,6520
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1151,0000
best_rank_diff 54,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 19,7379
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 17,7324
surface_matches_ratio 1,1212
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,1622
surface_wr_p2 42,4242
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,9756
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,2432
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2432
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,4536
first_serve_won_diff -0,3324
second_serve_won_diff 9,5873
bp_saved_diff -4,7069
bp_converted_diff 13,8378
aces_per_match_diff 2,3718
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -30,1200
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 11,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 13,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8812
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2821
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5263
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0833
serve_consistency_p1 6,4878
serve_consistency_p2 4,3626
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 32,6070
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0246
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0212
elite_surface_amplifier 39,4758
UTR
utr_diff 0,5500
utr_p1 0,8812
utr_p2 0,8165
utr_advantage 3,6149
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23139
API ID 15372377
Gamdom ID 601083
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23139,
    "api_id": 15372377,
    "gamdom_id": 601083,
    "player1": "Denis Shapovalov",
    "player2": "Yunchaokete Bu",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8305,
    "prob_p2": 0.1695,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8305,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 23,
      "utr_singles": 15.35,
      "utr_ranking": 42,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 120,
      "utr_singles": 14.91,
      "utr_ranking": 97,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.42424242424242,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.35,
      "ranking": 42,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.91,
      "ranking": 97,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8811764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.8164705882352941,
    "utr_diff": 0.5500000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 5.217391304347826,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 1151,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.706879606879596,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.42424242424242,
    "utr_advantage": 3.6148537627341484,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 54,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6519975268528964,
    "rank_advantage": 97,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.08333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 19.73791973791974,
    "bp_converted_diff": 13.837837837837839,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.453628173628161,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8812260536398467,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2820512820512822,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.371826371826371,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.3324324324324408,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.487821141308177,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.362570468480784,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 32.60699459226438,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.24324324324324,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 9.587305487305493,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.121212121212121,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -30.120000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 39.47583947583948,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 11,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 13,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.024621621621621625,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.021242424242424174,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.73236651285432,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}