Elias Ymer vs Alexander Shevchenko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elias …: 60,2% Alexander …: 39,8%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
UTR 14,20 vs 14,73 (-0,55) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elias … Alexander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,50 38,0%
Gamdom 2,85 1,47 35,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,66 2,51 60,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Elias …: +23,8% Alexander …: -23,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elias Ymer
Ranking #175
UTR Rating 14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking #284
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Alexander Shevchenko
Ranking #97
UTR Rating 14,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #123
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/23 = 34,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -71,0000
rank_ratio 0,5943
log_rank_ratio -0,5204
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -260,0000
best_rank_diff -60,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 29,5031
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 21,6435
surface_matches_ratio 1,2174
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 34,7826
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 37,0370
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,5256
first_serve_won_diff 3,6224
second_serve_won_diff 2,2158
bp_saved_diff 3,8609
bp_converted_diff 13,4947
aces_per_match_diff 0,0248
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 90,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,5260
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3818
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5385
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4286
serve_consistency_p1 4,9419
serve_consistency_p2 11,9875
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -15,3533
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2139
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2232
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5500
utr_p1 0,7224
utr_p2 0,7871
utr_advantage -3,8155
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23140
API ID 15373167
Gamdom ID 601548
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23140,
    "api_id": 15373167,
    "gamdom_id": 601548,
    "player1": "Elias Ymer",
    "player2": "Alexander Shevchenko",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T00:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.63,
      "p2": 1.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.85,
      "p2": 1.47
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.73,
      "p2": 1.45
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6016,
    "prob_p2": 0.3984,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6016,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 175,
      "utr_singles": 14.2,
      "utr_ranking": 284,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 97,
      "utr_singles": 14.73,
      "utr_ranking": 123,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 284,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.73,
      "ranking": 123,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.7870588235294117,
    "utr_diff": -0.5499999999999989,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5942857142857143,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -260,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.860869565217392,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 29.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 34.78260869565217,
    "utr_advantage": -3.8154699965313834,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -60,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5203950747821413,
    "rank_advantage": -71,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 29.50310559006212,
    "bp_converted_diff": 13.494720496894402,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.525621118012424,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38181818181818183,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.024844720496894013,
    "combined_confidence": 0.85,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.622360248447208,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.94185755966205,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.987506390081574,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -15.353270839845788,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.03703703703704,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.215838509316775,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2173913043478262,
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    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21385714285714286,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.22317391304347822,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.643518518518515,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}