Elias Ymer vs Alexander Shevchenko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:05
19 Ene 2026, 04:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elias …: 60,2%
Alexander …: 39,8%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
UTR 14,20 vs 14,73
(-0,55)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elias … | Alexander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,50 | 38,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,85 | 1,47 | 35,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,66 | 2,51 | 60,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elias …: +23,8%
Alexander …: -23,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elias Ymer
Ranking
#175
UTR Rating
14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking
#284
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Alexander Shevchenko
Ranking
#97
UTR Rating
14,73 Pro
UTR Ranking
#123
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
8/23 = 34,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -71,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5943 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5204 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -260,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -60,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 29,5031 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 21,6435 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2174 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 34,7826 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 37,0370 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,5256 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,6224 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,2158 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,8609 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 13,4947 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0248 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 14,5260 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3818 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5385 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4286 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9419 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,9875 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -15,3533 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2139 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2232 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7871 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,8155 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23140
API ID
15373167
Gamdom ID
601548
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23140,
"api_id": 15373167,
"gamdom_id": 601548,
"player1": "Elias Ymer",
"player2": "Alexander Shevchenko",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T00:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.85,
"p2": 1.47
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.73,
"p2": 1.45
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6016,
"prob_p2": 0.3984,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6016,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 175,
"utr_singles": 14.2,
"utr_ranking": 284,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 97,
"utr_singles": 14.73,
"utr_ranking": 123,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 284,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 123,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7870588235294117,
"utr_diff": -0.5499999999999989,
"rank_ratio": 0.5942857142857143,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -260,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.860869565217392,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 29.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 34.78260869565217,
"utr_advantage": -3.8154699965313834,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -60,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5203950747821413,
"rank_advantage": -71,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 29.50310559006212,
"bp_converted_diff": 13.494720496894402,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.525621118012424,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38181818181818183,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.024844720496894013,
"combined_confidence": 0.85,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.622360248447208,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.94185755966205,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.987506390081574,
"surface_rank_synergy": -15.353270839845788,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.03703703703704,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.215838509316775,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2173913043478262,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 14.52600000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21385714285714286,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.22317391304347822,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.643518518518515,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}