Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 10:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Frances Tiafoe
Frances …: 74,9% Jason …: 25,1%
¿Por qué Frances Tiafoe?
UTR 15,18 vs 14,77 (+0,51) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Frances … Jason … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,31 3,75 76,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,34 3,98 74,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Frances …: -4,1% Jason …: +4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking #34
UTR Rating 15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #62
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 14/26 = 53,8%
Jason Kubler
Ranking #194
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #115
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/26 = 61,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 161,0000
rank_ratio 6,1935
log_rank_ratio 1,8235
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1195,0000
best_rank_diff 53,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,6923
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,7778
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,8462
surface_wr_p2 61,5385
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,0000
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0769
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,3285
first_serve_won_diff -0,2769
second_serve_won_diff -2,5462
bp_saved_diff 7,4846
bp_converted_diff -4,5462
aces_per_match_diff 2,6154
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff -62,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -43,7550
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 10,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4898
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5385
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 6,9850
serve_consistency_p2 9,2480
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -14,0270
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1225
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2764
elite_surface_amplifier -15,3846
UTR
utr_diff 0,5100
utr_p1 0,8541
utr_p2 0,7941
utr_advantage 3,3989
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23144
API ID 15373170
Gamdom ID 601555
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23144,
    "api_id": 15373170,
    "gamdom_id": 601555,
    "player1": "Frances Tiafoe",
    "player2": "Jason Kubler",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T06:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.29,
      "p2": 3.54
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7487,
    "prob_p2": 0.2513,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7487,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 34,
      "utr_singles": 15.18,
      "utr_ranking": 62,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 194,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 115,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.18,
      "ranking": 62,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 115,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.7941176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 6.193548387096774,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 1195,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.484615384615395,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -62.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.84615384615385,
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    "utr_advantage": 3.398867044318559,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.8235081675426352,
    "rank_advantage": 161,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.692307692307693,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.546153846153842,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.328461538461525,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.489795918367347,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.615384615384616,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.27692307692308304,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07692307692307693,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.984959131133815,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.24800049977133,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -14.026985904174119,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.5461538461538424,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
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    "days_since_last_match_p1": 10,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.1225384615384616,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.27638461538461545,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.777777777777776,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}