Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 10:15
18 Ene 2026, 10:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Frances Tiafoe
Frances …: 74,9%
Jason …: 25,1%
¿Por qué Frances Tiafoe?
UTR 15,18 vs 14,77
(+0,51)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Frances … | Jason … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,50 | 83,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,31 | 3,75 | 76,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,34 | 3,98 | 74,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Frances …: -4,1%
Jason …: +4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking
#34
UTR Rating
15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#62
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
14/26 = 53,8%
Jason Kubler
Ranking
#194
UTR Rating
14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#115
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
16/26 = 61,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 161,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,1935 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,8235 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1195,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 53,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,6923 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,7778 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 61,5385 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0769 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,3285 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,2769 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,5462 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,4846 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,5462 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,6154 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -62,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -43,7550 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4898 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5385 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9850 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2480 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -14,0270 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1225 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2764 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -15,3846 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7941 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,3989 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23144
API ID
15373170
Gamdom ID
601555
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23144,
"api_id": 15373170,
"gamdom_id": 601555,
"player1": "Frances Tiafoe",
"player2": "Jason Kubler",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T06:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.31,
"p2": 3.75
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.29,
"p2": 3.54
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7487,
"prob_p2": 0.2513,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7487,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 34,
"utr_singles": 15.18,
"utr_ranking": 62,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 194,
"utr_singles": 14.77,
"utr_ranking": 115,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
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"wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 62,
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"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 115,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 6.193548387096774,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 1195,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.484615384615395,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -62.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.84615384615385,
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"utr_advantage": 3.398867044318559,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 53,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.8235081675426352,
"rank_advantage": 161,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.692307692307693,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.546153846153842,
"p1_surface_matches": 26,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.328461538461525,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.489795918367347,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.615384615384616,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.27692307692308304,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07692307692307693,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.984959131133815,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.24800049977133,
"surface_rank_synergy": -14.026985904174119,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.5461538461538424,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -43.754999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -15.384615384615387,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 10,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.1225384615384616,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.27638461538461545,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.777777777777776,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}