Grigor Dimitrov vs Tomas Machac
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 12:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor …: 69,1% Tomas …: 30,9%
¿Por qué Grigor Dimitrov?
UTR 15,67 vs 15,26 (+0,42) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Grigor … Tomas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
Gamdom 2,20 1,74 45,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,45 3,23 69,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Grigor …: +21,7% Tomas …: -21,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Grigor Dimitrov
Ranking #45
UTR Rating 15,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 10/16 = 62,5%
Tomas Machac
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #56
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -10,0000
rank_ratio 0,7778
log_rank_ratio -0,2513
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -255,0000
best_rank_diff 17,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,8793
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,8182
surface_matches_ratio 0,5517
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 58,6207
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,5758
p1_surface_matches 16,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5333
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,7500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,2550
first_serve_won_diff 1,0476
second_serve_won_diff -6,8345
bp_saved_diff 3,5170
bp_converted_diff -12,3563
aces_per_match_diff -1,8642
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -24,4700
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 9,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0582
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 3,2717
serve_consistency_p2 8,9888
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,9749
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1350
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0762
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4200
utr_p1 0,9200
utr_p2 0,8706
utr_advantage 2,6906
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23148
API ID 15372371
Gamdom ID 601108
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23148,
    "api_id": 15372371,
    "gamdom_id": 601108,
    "player1": "Grigor Dimitrov",
    "player2": "Tomas Machac",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T08:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.74
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.13,
      "p2": 1.7
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6906,
    "prob_p2": 0.3094,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6906,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 45,
      "utr_singles": 15.67,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 15.26,
      "utr_ranking": 56,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.67,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.26,
      "ranking": 56,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.92,
    "utr_p2": 0.8705882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -255,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.5170258620689623,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -37.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
    "utr_advantage": 2.6905829596412554,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 17,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.25131442828090605,
    "rank_advantage": -10,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.8793103448275943,
    "bp_converted_diff": -12.356250000000003,
    "p1_surface_matches": 16,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.254978448275864,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0582010582010581,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.8642241379310347,
    "combined_confidence": 0.75,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.047629310344817,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.271669733415382,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.988821821904454,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.9749266614345514,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.8344827586206875,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5517241379310345,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -24.47,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.135,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07620689655172408,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.8181818181818166,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}