Hugo Gaston vs Jannik Sinner
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jannik Sinner
Hugo …: 10,6% Jannik …: 89,4%
¿Por qué Jannik Sinner?
UTR 14,71 vs 16,39 (-1,78) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Hugo … Jannik … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 34,00 1,00 2,9%
Gamdom 29,00 1,01 3,4%
IA Fair Odds 9,43 1,12 10,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Hugo …: +7,7% Jannik …: -7,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hugo Gaston
Ranking #93
UTR Rating 14,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #125
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 24/39 = 61,5%
Jannik Sinner
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 16,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 39/42 = 92,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -92,0000
rank_ratio 0,0213
log_rank_ratio -3,8501
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -10847,0000
best_rank_diff -57,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -31,3187
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -28,6653
surface_matches_ratio 0,9286
surface_tournaments_won_diff -4,0000
surface_wr_p1 61,5385
surface_wr_p2 92,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,4651
surface_wr_p2_stable 89,1304
p1_surface_matches 39,0000
p2_surface_matches 42,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2308
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,6985
first_serve_won_diff -8,4853
second_serve_won_diff -7,4291
bp_saved_diff -13,5722
bp_converted_diff -5,2059
aces_per_match_diff -3,1136
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -29,0040
current_streak_diff -6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 62,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1471
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0758
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8333
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,6329
serve_consistency_p2 2,6150
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 120,5815
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2074
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,3366
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,7800
utr_p1 0,7824
utr_p2 0,9918
utr_advantage -11,4543
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23150
API ID 15372380
Gamdom ID 601085
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23150,
    "api_id": 15372380,
    "gamdom_id": 601085,
    "player1": "Hugo Gaston",
    "player2": "Jannik Sinner",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 34.0,
      "p2": 1.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 29.0,
      "p2": 1.01
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 28.46,
      "p2": 1.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.106,
    "prob_p2": 0.894,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.894,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 93,
      "utr_singles": 14.71,
      "utr_ranking": 125,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 16.39,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 92.85714285714286,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.71,
      "ranking": 125,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 16.39,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.9917647058823529,
    "utr_diff": -1.7799999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 0.02127659574468085,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -10847,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -13.572161172161174,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -49.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
    "surface_wr_p2": 92.85714285714286,
    "utr_advantage": -11.454311454311451,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -57,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -3.8501476017100584,
    "rank_advantage": -92,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -31.31868131868132,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.205860805860802,
    "p1_surface_matches": 39,
    "p2_surface_matches": 42,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.698516483516492,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1470588235294117,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.075801749271137,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.1135531135531136,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -8.485347985347985,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.632876903122176,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 2.6149926588144514,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 120.5815457678425,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.46511627906976,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 89.13043478260869,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.42912087912088,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -29.00399999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2073846153846154,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.33657142857142863,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -28.665318503538927,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -4
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}