Hugo Gaston vs Jannik Sinner
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 12:10
20 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jannik Sinner
Hugo …: 10,6%
Jannik …: 89,4%
¿Por qué Jannik Sinner?
UTR 14,71 vs 16,39
(-1,78)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Hugo … | Jannik … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 34,00 | 1,00 | 2,9% |
| Gamdom | 29,00 | 1,01 | 3,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 9,43 | 1,12 | 10,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Hugo …: +7,7%
Jannik …: -7,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hugo Gaston
Ranking
#93
UTR Rating
14,71 Pro
UTR Ranking
#125
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
24/39 = 61,5%
Jannik Sinner
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
16,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
39/42 = 92,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -92,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0213 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -3,8501 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -10847,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -57,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -31,3187 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -28,6653 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9286 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -4,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,5385 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 92,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,4651 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 89,1304 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 39,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2308 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,6985 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -8,4853 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,4291 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -13,5722 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,2059 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,1136 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -29,0040 | |
| current_streak_diff | -6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1471 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0758 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,6329 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 2,6150 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 120,5815 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2074 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,3366 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,7800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7824 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9918 | |
| utr_advantage | -11,4543 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23150
API ID
15372380
Gamdom ID
601085
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23150,
"api_id": 15372380,
"gamdom_id": 601085,
"player1": "Hugo Gaston",
"player2": "Jannik Sinner",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 34.0,
"p2": 1.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 29.0,
"p2": 1.01
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 28.46,
"p2": 1.01
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.106,
"prob_p2": 0.894,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.894,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 93,
"utr_singles": 14.71,
"utr_ranking": 125,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 39,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 16.39,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 92.85714285714286,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 125,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9917647058823529,
"utr_diff": -1.7799999999999994,
"rank_ratio": 0.02127659574468085,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -10847,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -13.572161172161174,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -49.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
"surface_wr_p2": 92.85714285714286,
"utr_advantage": -11.454311454311451,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -57,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -3.8501476017100584,
"rank_advantage": -92,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": -31.31868131868132,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.205860805860802,
"p1_surface_matches": 39,
"p2_surface_matches": 42,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.698516483516492,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1470588235294117,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.075801749271137,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.1135531135531136,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -6,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -8.485347985347985,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.632876903122176,
"serve_consistency_p2": 2.6149926588144514,
"surface_rank_synergy": 120.5815457678425,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.46511627906976,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 89.13043478260869,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.42912087912088,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -29.00399999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2073846153846154,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.33657142857142863,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -28.665318503538927,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -4
},
"feature_importance": {}
}