Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 06:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jakub Mensik
Jakub …: 61,2% Pablo …: 38,8%
¿Por qué Jakub Mensik?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jakub … Pablo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,25 4,00 80,0%
Gamdom 1,23 3,60 81,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,63 2,58 61,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Jakub …: -15,0% Pablo …: +15,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jakub Mensik
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking #37
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking #94
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 74,0000
rank_ratio 5,1111
log_rank_ratio 1,6314
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1469,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,9211
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,5556
surface_matches_ratio 0,8421
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 68,4211
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,1111
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 25,4577
first_serve_won_diff 8,1757
second_serve_won_diff -0,8066
bp_saved_diff 4,9592
bp_converted_diff -6,8711
aces_per_match_diff 10,8059
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 44,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 38,8700
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1710
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8571
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6190
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 7,4967
serve_consistency_p2 7,3888
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -9,6597
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0510
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2582
elite_surface_amplifier -11,8421
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8729
utr_p2 0,8729
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23151
API ID 15372370
Gamdom ID 601094
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23151,
    "api_id": 15372370,
    "gamdom_id": 601094,
    "player1": "Jakub Mensik",
    "player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T02:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 4.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.23,
      "p2": 3.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.22,
      "p2": 4.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6117,
    "prob_p2": 0.3883,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6117,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 15.4,
      "utr_ranking": 37,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 94,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.4,
      "ranking": 37,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 5.111111111111111,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 1469,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.959210526315786,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 44.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6314168191528755,
    "rank_advantage": 74,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.921052631578945,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.871052631578944,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": 25.45769736842105,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1709844559585492,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 10.805921052631579,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.175657894736844,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.496672894950421,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.388833550722149,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -9.659704850247286,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.8065789473684291,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8421052631578947,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 38.87000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -11.84210526315789,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.050999999999999934,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.25821052631578956,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.555555555555543,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}