Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 06:10
20 Ene 2026, 06:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jakub Mensik
Jakub …: 61,2%
Pablo …: 38,8%
¿Por qué Jakub Mensik?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jakub … | Pablo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,25 | 4,00 | 80,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,23 | 3,60 | 81,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,63 | 2,58 | 61,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jakub …: -15,0%
Pablo …: +15,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jakub Mensik
Ranking
#17
UTR Rating
15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking
#37
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/32 = 62,5%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking
#94
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 74,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,1111 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6314 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1469,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -5,9211 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,5556 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8421 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 68,4211 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2500 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 25,4577 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 8,1757 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,8066 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,9592 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,8711 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 10,8059 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 44,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 38,8700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1710 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8571 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6190 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,4967 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,3888 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -9,6597 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0510 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2582 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -11,8421 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8729 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8729 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23151
API ID
15372370
Gamdom ID
601094
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23151,
"api_id": 15372370,
"gamdom_id": 601094,
"player1": "Jakub Mensik",
"player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T02:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 4.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.23,
"p2": 3.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.22,
"p2": 4.16
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6117,
"prob_p2": 0.3883,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6117,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 17,
"utr_singles": 15.4,
"utr_ranking": 37,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 94,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.4,
"ranking": 37,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
"utr_p2": 0.8729411764705882,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 5.111111111111111,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 72.0,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 1469,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.959210526315786,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 44.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -6,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.6314168191528755,
"rank_advantage": 74,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -5.921052631578945,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.871052631578944,
"p1_surface_matches": 32,
"p2_surface_matches": 38,
"serve_quality_diff": 25.45769736842105,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1709844559585492,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
"aces_per_match_diff": 10.805921052631579,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 8.175657894736844,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.496672894950421,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.388833550722149,
"surface_rank_synergy": -9.659704850247286,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.8065789473684291,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8421052631578947,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 38.87000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -11.84210526315789,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.050999999999999934,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.25821052631578956,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.555555555555543,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}