Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 07:20
20 Ene 2026, 07:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Joao Fonseca
Joao …: 70,0%
Eliot …: 30,0%
¿Por qué Joao Fonseca?
UTR 15,56 vs 15,16
(+0,56)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Joao … | Eliot … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,75 | 69,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,58 | 2,55 | 63,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,43 | 3,33 | 70,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Joao …: +4,3%
Eliot …: -4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Joao Fonseca
Ranking
#32
UTR Rating
15,56 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
26/33 = 78,8%
Eliot Spizzirri
Ranking
#85
UTR Rating
15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#70
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
27/44 = 61,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 59,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,9667 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,0874 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 838,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 63,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 17,4242 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 15,2590 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7500 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,7879 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 61,3636 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 75,6757 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,4167 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 44,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5758 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,0538 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,5538 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,6402 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,9379 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,6174 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,2424 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 3,5700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1493 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9677 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7391 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9426 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,6835 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 18,9478 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2289 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1726 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 17,4242 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9059 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8400 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,6316 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23155
API ID
15372379
Gamdom ID
601081
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23155,
"api_id": 15372379,
"gamdom_id": 601081,
"player1": "Joao Fonseca",
"player2": "Eliot Spizzirri",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T03:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.58,
"p2": 2.55
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6995,
"prob_p2": 0.3005,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6995,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 32,
"utr_singles": 15.56,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.78787878787878,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 85,
"utr_singles": 15.16,
"utr_ranking": 70,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.36363636363637,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 44,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 70,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8400000000000001,
"utr_diff": 0.5599999999999987,
"rank_ratio": 2.966666666666667,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": 838,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.9378787878788017,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.78787878787878,
"surface_wr_p2": 61.36363636363637,
"utr_advantage": 3.6316472114137404,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 63,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.0874389880699844,
"rank_advantage": 59,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7391304347826086,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": 17.424242424242415,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.617424242424249,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 44,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.0537878787878725,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1492537313432836,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.967741935483871,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.2424242424242422,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.5537878787878725,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5757575757575758,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.94256208058961,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.683545498026453,
"surface_rank_synergy": 18.947800549704265,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 75.67567567567568,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.416666666666664,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.6401515151515085,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.75,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 3.569999999999993,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 17.424242424242415,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 80,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2288787878787879,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1726363636363636,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 15.259009009009013,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}