Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 07:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Joao Fonseca
Joao …: 70,0% Eliot …: 30,0%
¿Por qué Joao Fonseca?
UTR 15,56 vs 15,16 (+0,56) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Joao … Eliot … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,58 2,55 63,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,43 3,33 70,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Joao …: +4,3% Eliot …: -4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Joao Fonseca
Ranking #32
UTR Rating 15,56 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 26/33 = 78,8%
Eliot Spizzirri
Ranking #85
UTR Rating 15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #70
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 27/44 = 61,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 59,0000
rank_ratio 2,9667
log_rank_ratio 1,0874
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 838,0000
best_rank_diff 63,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 17,4242
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 15,2590
surface_matches_ratio 0,7500
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,7879
surface_wr_p2 61,3636
surface_wr_p1_stable 75,6757
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,4167
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 44,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5758
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,0538
first_serve_won_diff 5,5538
second_serve_won_diff 2,6402
bp_saved_diff 3,9379
bp_converted_diff 5,6174
aces_per_match_diff 1,2424
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 3,5700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 80,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1493
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9677
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7391
serve_consistency_p1 6,9426
serve_consistency_p2 4,6835
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 18,9478
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2289
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1726
elite_surface_amplifier 17,4242
UTR
utr_diff 0,5600
utr_p1 0,9059
utr_p2 0,8400
utr_advantage 3,6316
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23155
API ID 15372379
Gamdom ID 601081
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23155,
    "api_id": 15372379,
    "gamdom_id": 601081,
    "player1": "Joao Fonseca",
    "player2": "Eliot Spizzirri",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T03:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.58,
      "p2": 2.55
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6995,
    "prob_p2": 0.3005,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6995,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 32,
      "utr_singles": 15.56,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.78787878787878,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 85,
      "utr_singles": 15.16,
      "utr_ranking": 70,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.36363636363637,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 44,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.56,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.16,
      "ranking": 70,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.8400000000000001,
    "utr_diff": 0.5599999999999987,
    "rank_ratio": 2.966666666666667,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 838,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.9378787878788017,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.78787878787878,
    "surface_wr_p2": 61.36363636363637,
    "utr_advantage": 3.6316472114137404,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 63,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.0874389880699844,
    "rank_advantage": 59,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7391304347826086,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 17.424242424242415,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.617424242424249,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 44,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.0537878787878725,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1492537313432836,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.967741935483871,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2424242424242422,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.5537878787878725,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5757575757575758,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.94256208058961,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.683545498026453,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 18.947800549704265,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 75.67567567567568,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.416666666666664,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.6401515151515085,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.75,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 3.569999999999993,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 17.424242424242415,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 80,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2288787878787879,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1726363636363636,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 15.259009009009013,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}