Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompson
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 06:25
19 Ene 2026, 06:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jordan Thompson
Juan …: 33,9%
Jordan …: 66,1%
¿Por qué Jordan Thompson?
UTR 14,67 vs 15,04
(-0,50)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Juan … | Jordan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,95 | 1,45 | 33,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,95 | 1,51 | 33,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Juan …: +4,1%
Jordan …: -4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Ranking
#87
UTR Rating
14,67 Pro
UTR Ranking
#134
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
4/12 = 33,3%
Jordan Thompson
Ranking
#111
UTR Rating
15,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#88
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
10/21 = 47,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 28,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3373 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2907 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 152,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -45,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,2857 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,0900 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5714 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 47,6190 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 37,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 48,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5800 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,8719 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,2810 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,8952 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -9,9000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,7619 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -1,0950 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 106,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8077 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,2823 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,3212 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,1527 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1947 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0042 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -14,2857 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8447 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,3490 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23156
API ID
15372362
Gamdom ID
601089
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23156,
"api_id": 15372362,
"gamdom_id": 601089,
"player1": "Juan Manuel Cerundolo",
"player2": "Jordan Thompson",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T02:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.95,
"p2": 1.45
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.81,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3392,
"prob_p2": 0.6608,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6608,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 87,
"utr_singles": 14.67,
"utr_ranking": 134,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 111,
"utr_singles": 15.04,
"utr_ranking": 88,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 47.61904761904761,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 134,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 88,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8447058823529412,
"utr_diff": -0.5,
"rank_ratio": 1.3373493975903614,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.0,
"points_diff": 152,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -9.900000000000013,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.46,
"p2_confidence": 0.7,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 47.61904761904761,
"utr_advantage": -3.3489618218352315,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -45,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.2906895935157362,
"rank_advantage": 28,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.285714285714285,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.7619047619047628,
"p1_surface_matches": 12,
"p2_surface_matches": 21,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.871904761904766,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8076923076923077,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.0000000000000004,
"combined_confidence": 0.58,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.2809523809523853,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.282291833951064,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.321160800786411,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.152708478796231,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.8952380952380921,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -1.095000000000006,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -14.285714285714285,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 106,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.19466666666666677,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.004190476190476133,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.09,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}