Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompson
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 06:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jordan Thompson
Juan …: 33,9% Jordan …: 66,1%
¿Por qué Jordan Thompson?
UTR 14,67 vs 15,04 (-0,50) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Jordan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 2,95 1,45 33,9%
IA Fair Odds 2,95 1,51 33,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: +4,1% Jordan …: -4,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Ranking #87
UTR Rating 14,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #134
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 4/12 = 33,3%
Jordan Thompson
Ranking #111
UTR Rating 15,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #88
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 10/21 = 47,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 28,0000
rank_ratio 1,3373
log_rank_ratio 0,2907
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 152,0000
best_rank_diff -45,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,2857
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,0900
surface_matches_ratio 0,5714
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 47,6190
surface_wr_p1_stable 37,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,0000
p1_surface_matches 12,0000
p2_surface_matches 21,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4600
p2_confidence 0,7000
combined_confidence 0,5800
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,8719
first_serve_won_diff -2,2810
second_serve_won_diff 0,8952
bp_saved_diff -9,9000
bp_converted_diff 3,7619
aces_per_match_diff -3,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 32,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -1,0950
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 106,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8077
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 7,2823
serve_consistency_p2 7,3212
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,1527
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1947
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0042
elite_surface_amplifier -14,2857
UTR
utr_diff -0,5000
utr_p1 0,7859
utr_p2 0,8447
utr_advantage -3,3490
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23156
API ID 15372362
Gamdom ID 601089
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23156,
    "api_id": 15372362,
    "gamdom_id": 601089,
    "player1": "Juan Manuel Cerundolo",
    "player2": "Jordan Thompson",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T02:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.95,
      "p2": 1.45
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.81,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3392,
    "prob_p2": 0.6608,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6608,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 87,
      "utr_singles": 14.67,
      "utr_ranking": 134,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 111,
      "utr_singles": 15.04,
      "utr_ranking": 88,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 47.61904761904761,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.67,
      "ranking": 134,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.04,
      "ranking": 88,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.8447058823529412,
    "utr_diff": -0.5,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3373493975903614,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 32.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.0,
    "points_diff": 152,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -9.900000000000013,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.46,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 47.61904761904761,
    "utr_advantage": -3.3489618218352315,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -45,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.2906895935157362,
    "rank_advantage": 28,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.285714285714285,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.7619047619047628,
    "p1_surface_matches": 12,
    "p2_surface_matches": 21,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.871904761904766,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8076923076923077,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.0000000000000004,
    "combined_confidence": 0.58,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.2809523809523853,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.282291833951064,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.321160800786411,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.152708478796231,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.8952380952380921,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -1.095000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -14.285714285714285,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 106,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.19466666666666677,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.004190476190476133,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.09,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}