Juncheng Shang vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 05:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Roberto Bautista Agut
Juncheng …: 47,8% Roberto …: 52,2%
¿Por qué Roberto Bautista Agut?
UTR 15,33 vs 15,32 (-0,13) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juncheng … Roberto … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,32 3,65 75,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,09 1,92 47,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Juncheng …: -25,1% Roberto …: +25,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juncheng Shang
Ranking #318
UTR Rating 15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking #45
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 6/14 = 42,9%
Roberto Bautista Agut
Ranking #91
UTR Rating 15,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #47
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 4/14 = 28,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -221,0000
rank_ratio 0,2894
log_rank_ratio -1,2400
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -505,0000
best_rank_diff -38,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 14,2857
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,4074
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 28,5714
surface_wr_p1_stable 44,4444
surface_wr_p2_stable 33,3333
p1_surface_matches 14,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4867
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,4867
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,8521
first_serve_won_diff 5,3929
second_serve_won_diff -1,3857
bp_saved_diff -1,3286
bp_converted_diff 9,3571
aces_per_match_diff 1,7857
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 8,0000
momentum_diff 44,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 45,7450
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4375
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5672
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 8,1806
serve_consistency_p2 7,0907
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -17,7140
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1496
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4353
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1300
utr_p1 0,8600
utr_p2 0,8753
utr_advantage -0,8455
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23157
API ID 15372366
Gamdom ID 601111
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23157,
    "api_id": 15372366,
    "gamdom_id": 601111,
    "player1": "Juncheng Shang",
    "player2": "Roberto Bautista Agut",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T01:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4783,
    "prob_p2": 0.5217,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5217,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 318,
      "utr_singles": 15.33,
      "utr_ranking": 45,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 91,
      "utr_singles": 15.32,
      "utr_ranking": 47,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 28.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.33,
      "ranking": 45,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.32,
      "ranking": 47,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8600000000000001,
    "utr_p2": 0.8752941176470588,
    "utr_diff": -0.129999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 0.28938906752411575,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 8.0,
    "points_diff": -505,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.328571428571422,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 44.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 28.57142857142857,
    "utr_advantage": -0.8455284552845465,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -38,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2399832418489691,
    "rank_advantage": -221,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 14.285714285714285,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.357142857142858,
    "p1_surface_matches": 14,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.852142857142859,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4375,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5671641791044776,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.7857142857142856,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.392857142857139,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.180601405532434,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.0906682715370755,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -17.71404631212813,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.44444444444444,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.385714285714279,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 45.745000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14957142857142852,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.4352857142857143,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.407407407407409,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}