Juncheng Shang vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 05:30
19 Ene 2026, 05:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Roberto Bautista Agut
Juncheng …: 47,8%
Roberto …: 52,2%
¿Por qué Roberto Bautista Agut?
UTR 15,33 vs 15,32
(-0,13)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Juncheng … | Roberto … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,32 | 3,65 | 75,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,09 | 1,92 | 47,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Juncheng …: -25,1%
Roberto …: +25,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juncheng Shang
Ranking
#318
UTR Rating
15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#45
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
6/14 = 42,9%
Roberto Bautista Agut
Ranking
#91
UTR Rating
15,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#47
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
4/14 = 28,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -221,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2894 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2400 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -505,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -38,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 14,2857 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,4074 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 28,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 44,4444 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4867 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,8521 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,3929 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,3857 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,3286 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,3571 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,7857 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 44,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 45,7450 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4375 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5672 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,1806 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,0907 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -17,7140 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1496 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,4353 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8600 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8753 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,8455 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23157
API ID
15372366
Gamdom ID
601111
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23157,
"api_id": 15372366,
"gamdom_id": 601111,
"player1": "Juncheng Shang",
"player2": "Roberto Bautista Agut",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T01:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.32,
"p2": 3.65
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4783,
"prob_p2": 0.5217,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5217,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 318,
"utr_singles": 15.33,
"utr_ranking": 45,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 91,
"utr_singles": 15.32,
"utr_ranking": 47,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 28.57142857142857,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.33,
"ranking": 45,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.32,
"ranking": 47,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8600000000000001,
"utr_p2": 0.8752941176470588,
"utr_diff": -0.129999999999999,
"rank_ratio": 0.28938906752411575,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 8.0,
"points_diff": -505,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.328571428571422,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 44.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 28.57142857142857,
"utr_advantage": -0.8455284552845465,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -38,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.2399832418489691,
"rank_advantage": -221,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 14.285714285714285,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.357142857142858,
"p1_surface_matches": 14,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.852142857142859,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4375,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5671641791044776,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.7857142857142856,
"combined_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.392857142857139,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.180601405532434,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.0906682715370755,
"surface_rank_synergy": -17.71404631212813,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.44444444444444,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.385714285714279,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 45.745000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14957142857142852,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.4352857142857143,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.407407407407409,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}