Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 06:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karen Khachanov
Karen …: 61,3% Alex …: 38,7%
¿Por qué Karen Khachanov?
UTR 15,58 vs 15,12 (+0,61) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Karen … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
Gamdom 1,60 2,46 62,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,63 2,58 61,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Karen …: +2,6% Alex …: -2,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karen Khachanov
Ranking #18
UTR Rating 15,58 Pro
UTR Ranking #21
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 15/30 = 50,0%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #87
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 20,0000
rank_ratio 2,1765
log_rank_ratio 0,7777
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 970,0000
best_rank_diff 22,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,8824
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 9,1673
first_serve_won_diff 5,8565
second_serve_won_diff 0,2741
bp_saved_diff 6,1171
bp_converted_diff 4,3529
aces_per_match_diff 3,0784
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -8,2800
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 9,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5847
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2081
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 5,6783
serve_consistency_p2 9,5134
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0200
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0200
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,6100
utr_p1 0,9035
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 3,9675
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23159
API ID 15372384
Gamdom ID 601087
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23159,
    "api_id": 15372384,
    "gamdom_id": 601087,
    "player1": "Karen Khachanov",
    "player2": "Alex Michelsen",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T02:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.6,
      "p2": 2.46
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.57,
      "p2": 2.39
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6126,
    "prob_p2": 0.3874,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6126,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 18,
      "utr_singles": 15.58,
      "utr_ranking": 21,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 87,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.58,
      "ranking": 21,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 87,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9035294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.6099999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 2.176470588235294,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 970,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.117058823529412,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": -11.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 3.9674796747967442,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 22,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7777045685880083,
    "rank_advantage": 20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.352941176470587,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": 9.167333333333332,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.2081218274111676,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.07843137254902,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.856470588235297,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5846654093650074,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.678286440137294,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.51342199226229,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.2741176470588158,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8823529411764706,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -8.280000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.020000000000000018,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.020000000000000018,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}