Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 06:05
20 Ene 2026, 06:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karen Khachanov
Karen …: 61,3%
Alex …: 38,7%
¿Por qué Karen Khachanov?
UTR 15,58 vs 15,12
(+0,61)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Karen … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,30 | 61,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,60 | 2,46 | 62,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,63 | 2,58 | 61,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Karen …: +2,6%
Alex …: -2,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karen Khachanov
Ranking
#18
UTR Rating
15,58 Pro
UTR Ranking
#21
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
15/30 = 50,0%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 20,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,1765 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,7777 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 970,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 22,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8824 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 9,1673 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,8565 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,2741 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,1171 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,3529 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,0784 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -8,2800 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 9,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5847 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2081 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9762 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,6783 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,5134 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0200 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0200 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,6100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9035 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,9675 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23159
API ID
15372384
Gamdom ID
601087
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23159,
"api_id": 15372384,
"gamdom_id": 601087,
"player1": "Karen Khachanov",
"player2": "Alex Michelsen",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T02:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.6,
"p2": 2.46
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.57,
"p2": 2.39
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6126,
"prob_p2": 0.3874,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6126,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 18,
"utr_singles": 15.58,
"utr_ranking": 21,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.58,
"ranking": 21,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9035294117647058,
"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.6099999999999994,
"rank_ratio": 2.176470588235294,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": 970,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.117058823529412,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": -11.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 3.9674796747967442,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 22,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.7777045685880083,
"rank_advantage": 20,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.352941176470587,
"p1_surface_matches": 30,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": 9.167333333333332,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.2081218274111676,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.07843137254902,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.856470588235297,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5846654093650074,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.678286440137294,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.51342199226229,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.2741176470588158,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8823529411764706,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -8.280000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.020000000000000018,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.020000000000000018,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}