Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 66,9% Raphael …: 33,1%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 14,93 (+0,99) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Raphael … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,26 4,30 79,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,50 3,02 66,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -12,1% Raphael …: +12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking #72
UTR Rating 14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 67,0000
rank_ratio 14,4000
log_rank_ratio 2,6672
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 3338,0000
best_rank_diff 67,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -6,1655
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,3523
surface_matches_ratio 1,1563
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 65,6250
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8889
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,3447
first_serve_won_diff -1,7184
second_serve_won_diff 1,5799
bp_saved_diff 1,8486
bp_converted_diff -6,3172
aces_per_match_diff -0,4797
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 27,5400
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9123
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 8,5192
serve_consistency_p2 5,5788
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -16,4449
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0276
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2232
elite_surface_amplifier -18,4966
UTR
utr_diff 0,9900
utr_p1 0,9247
utr_p2 0,8082
utr_advantage 6,4432
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23163
API ID 15372373
Gamdom ID 601115
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23163,
    "api_id": 15372373,
    "gamdom_id": 601115,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Raphael Collignon",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.26,
      "p2": 4.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.24,
      "p2": 3.97
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6686,
    "prob_p2": 0.3314,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6686,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 72,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_diff": 0.9900000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 14.4,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 3338,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.8486486486486484,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 27.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
    "utr_advantage": 6.443215099251548,
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    "best_rank_diff": 67,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.667228206581955,
    "rank_advantage": 67,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -6.16554054054054,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.317229729729732,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.3446959459459578,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.4797297297297298,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.718412162162167,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.519205814154285,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.578812273943706,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -16.444903638554283,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.5798986486486513,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.15625,
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    "elite_surface_amplifier": -18.49662162162162,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.02759459459459468,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22324999999999995,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.352303523035232,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}