Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:30
20 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 66,9%
Raphael …: 33,1%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 14,93
(+0,99)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Raphael … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,50 | 83,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,26 | 4,30 | 79,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,50 | 3,02 | 66,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -12,1%
Raphael …: +12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking
#72
UTR Rating
14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking
#96
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 67,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 14,4000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,6672 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3338,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 67,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -6,1655 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,3523 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1563 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,6250 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8889 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,3447 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,7184 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,5799 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,8486 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,3172 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4797 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 27,5400 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9123 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,5192 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,5788 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -16,4449 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0276 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2232 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -18,4966 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9247 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8082 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,4432 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23163
API ID
15372373
Gamdom ID
601115
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23163,
"api_id": 15372373,
"gamdom_id": 601115,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Raphael Collignon",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.26,
"p2": 4.3
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.24,
"p2": 3.97
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6686,
"prob_p2": 0.3314,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6686,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 72,
"utr_singles": 14.93,
"utr_ranking": 96,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.625,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 9,
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 96,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
"utr_diff": 0.9900000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 14.4,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 3338,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.8486486486486484,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 27.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
"utr_advantage": 6.443215099251548,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 67,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.667228206581955,
"rank_advantage": 67,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -6.16554054054054,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.317229729729732,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.3446959459459578,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.4797297297297298,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.718412162162167,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.519205814154285,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.578812273943706,
"surface_rank_synergy": -16.444903638554283,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.5798986486486513,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.15625,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 27.54,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -18.49662162162162,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.02759459459459468,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22324999999999995,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.352303523035232,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}