Lorenzo Sonego vs Carlos Taberner
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo …: 89,2% Carlos …: 10,8%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Sonego?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,47 (+0,93) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Carlos … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,08 8,00 92,6%
Gamdom 1,09 8,80 91,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,12 9,28 89,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: +1,1% Carlos …: -1,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking #40
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/40 = 50,0%
Carlos Taberner
Ranking #99
UTR Rating 14,47 Pro
UTR Ranking #181
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 58,0000
rank_ratio 2,4500
log_rank_ratio 0,8961
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 610,0000
best_rank_diff 62,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 25,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,1530
surface_matches_ratio 10,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 25,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,1818
p1_surface_matches 40,0000
p2_surface_matches 4,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3533
combined_confidence 0,6767
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 13,6687
first_serve_won_diff 7,8500
second_serve_won_diff 2,3125
bp_saved_diff 9,0625
bp_converted_diff 0,8875
aces_per_match_diff 4,5250
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 10,9200
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 9,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4714
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 2,1932
serve_consistency_p2 9,7262
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 22,4022
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0580
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1920
elite_surface_amplifier 25,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,9300
utr_p1 0,8729
utr_p2 0,7635
utr_advantage 6,2187
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23164
API ID 15372372
Gamdom ID 601097
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23164,
    "api_id": 15372372,
    "gamdom_id": 601097,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Sonego",
    "player2": "Carlos Taberner",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 8.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 8.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 7.53
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8922,
    "prob_p2": 0.1078,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8922,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 40,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 99,
      "utr_singles": 14.47,
      "utr_ranking": 181,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.47,
      "ranking": 181,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.7635294117647059,
    "utr_diff": 0.9299999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 2.45,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 610,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.0625,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 11.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 25.0,
    "utr_advantage": 6.218655967903709,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 62,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8960880245566357,
    "rank_advantage": 58,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 25.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.8875000000000028,
    "p1_surface_matches": 40,
    "p2_surface_matches": 4,
    "serve_quality_diff": 13.668749999999996,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.47136563876652,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.525,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6766666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.849999999999994,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.1931714241917843,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.726214290970274,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 22.402200613915895,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.18181818181818,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.3125,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 10.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 10.919999999999995,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 25.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05800000000000005,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19199999999999995,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.1530303030303015,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}