Lorenzo Sonego vs Carlos Taberner
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
20 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo …: 89,2%
Carlos …: 10,8%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Sonego?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,47
(+0,93)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Carlos … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,08 | 8,00 | 92,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,09 | 8,80 | 91,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,12 | 9,28 | 89,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: +1,1%
Carlos …: -1,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking
#40
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/40 = 50,0%
Carlos Taberner
Ranking
#99
UTR Rating
14,47 Pro
UTR Ranking
#181
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
1/4 = 25,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 58,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,4500 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8961 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 610,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 62,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 25,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,1530 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 10,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 25,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 53,1818 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 4,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3533 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6767 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 13,6687 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,8500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,3125 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,0625 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,8875 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,5250 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 10,9200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 9,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4714 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3750 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,1932 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,7262 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 22,4022 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0580 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1920 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 25,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8729 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7635 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,2187 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23164
API ID
15372372
Gamdom ID
601097
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23164,
"api_id": 15372372,
"gamdom_id": 601097,
"player1": "Lorenzo Sonego",
"player2": "Carlos Taberner",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.08,
"p2": 8.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 8.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 7.53
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8922,
"prob_p2": 0.1078,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8922,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 40,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 99,
"utr_singles": 14.47,
"utr_ranking": 181,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 25.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 4,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 49,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 181,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7635294117647059,
"utr_diff": 0.9299999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 2.45,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 610,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.0625,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 11.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 25.0,
"utr_advantage": 6.218655967903709,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 62,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8960880245566357,
"rank_advantage": 58,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 25.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.8875000000000028,
"p1_surface_matches": 40,
"p2_surface_matches": 4,
"serve_quality_diff": 13.668749999999996,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.47136563876652,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.525,
"combined_confidence": 0.6766666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.849999999999994,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.1931714241917843,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.726214290970274,
"surface_rank_synergy": 22.402200613915895,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.18181818181818,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.3125,
"surface_matches_ratio": 10.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 10.919999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 25.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 9,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05800000000000005,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19199999999999995,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.1530303030303015,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}