Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wu
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 07:25
20 Ene 2026, 07:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yibing Wu
Luca …: 32,4%
Yibing …: 67,6%
¿Por qué Yibing Wu?
UTR 14,59 vs 15,13
(-0,05)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luca … | Yibing … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,33 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 4,20 | 1,26 | 23,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,09 | 1,48 | 32,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luca …: +4,3%
Yibing …: -4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#108
UTR Rating
14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#145
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Yibing Wu
Ranking
#168
UTR Rating
15,13 Pro
UTR Ranking
#74
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
23/31 = 74,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 60,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5556 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4418 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 214,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -13,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,5350 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -18,0952 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3226 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 74,1935 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 71,4286 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0732 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,9163 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,8829 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,2634 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,3829 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,9195 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4894 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -64,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4842 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,6806 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,9261 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -9,0730 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0234 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,3019 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7918 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,3400 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23165
API ID
15373160
Gamdom ID
601541
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23165,
"api_id": 15373160,
"gamdom_id": 601541,
"player1": "Luca Nardi",
"player2": "Yibing Wu",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T03:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.33
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.2,
"p2": 1.26
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.97,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.324,
"prob_p2": 0.676,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.676,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 108,
"utr_singles": 14.59,
"utr_ranking": 145,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 168,
"utr_singles": 15.13,
"utr_ranking": 74,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 145,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 74,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.791764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.05000000000000071,
"rank_ratio": 1.5555555555555556,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 214,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.38292682926827837,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -64.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
"surface_wr_p2": 74.19354838709677,
"utr_advantage": -0.3400204012240783,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -13,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.44183275227903923,
"rank_advantage": 60,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -4,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.53501180173091,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.9195121951219534,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 31,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.916317859952784,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.4893784421715188,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -5,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.8829268292682997,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.68063039980513,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.92611339959234,
"surface_rank_synergy": -9.07304078244132,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.42857142857143,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.263414634146336,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3225806451612903,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -50.00000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.023414634146341484,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.3019354838709677,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.095238095238095,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}