Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wu
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 07:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yibing Wu
Luca …: 32,4% Yibing …: 67,6%
¿Por qué Yibing Wu?
UTR 14,59 vs 15,13 (-0,05) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luca … Yibing … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,33 29,4%
Gamdom 4,20 1,26 23,8%
IA Fair Odds 3,09 1,48 32,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Luca …: +4,3% Yibing …: -4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking #108
UTR Rating 14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #145
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Yibing Wu
Ranking #168
UTR Rating 15,13 Pro
UTR Ranking #74
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 23/31 = 74,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 60,0000
rank_ratio 1,5556
log_rank_ratio 0,4418
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 214,0000
best_rank_diff -13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,5350
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,0952
surface_matches_ratio 1,3226
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,6585
surface_wr_p2 74,1935
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,4286
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0732
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,9163
first_serve_won_diff 1,8829
second_serve_won_diff -6,2634
bp_saved_diff 0,3829
bp_converted_diff 1,9195
aces_per_match_diff -0,4894
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff -64,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -50,0000
current_streak_diff -5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4842
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 10,6806
serve_consistency_p2 4,9261
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -9,0730
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0234
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,3019
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0500
utr_p1 0,7859
utr_p2 0,7918
utr_advantage -0,3400
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23165
API ID 15373160
Gamdom ID 601541
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23165,
    "api_id": 15373160,
    "gamdom_id": 601541,
    "player1": "Luca Nardi",
    "player2": "Yibing Wu",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T03:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.2,
      "p2": 1.26
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.97,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.324,
    "prob_p2": 0.676,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.676,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 108,
      "utr_singles": 14.59,
      "utr_ranking": 145,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 168,
      "utr_singles": 15.13,
      "utr_ranking": 74,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.59,
      "ranking": 145,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.13,
      "ranking": 74,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.791764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.05000000000000071,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5555555555555556,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 214,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.38292682926827837,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -64.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
    "surface_wr_p2": 74.19354838709677,
    "utr_advantage": -0.3400204012240783,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.44183275227903923,
    "rank_advantage": 60,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -4,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.53501180173091,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.9195121951219534,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.916317859952784,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.4893784421715188,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.8829268292682997,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.68063039980513,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.92611339959234,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -9.07304078244132,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.263414634146336,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3225806451612903,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -50.00000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.023414634146341484,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.3019354838709677,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.095238095238095,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}