Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Hamad Medjedovic
Mariano …: 25,3%
Hamad …: 74,7%
¿Por qué Hamad Medjedovic?
UTR 14,85 vs 15,24
(-0,24)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mariano … | Hamad … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,33 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,10 | 1,41 | 32,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,95 | 1,34 | 25,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mariano …: -2,8%
Hamad …: +2,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mariano Navone
Ranking
#74
UTR Rating
14,85 Pro
UTR Ranking
#104
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
5/17 = 29,4%
Hamad Medjedovic
Ranking
#90
UTR Rating
15,24 Pro
UTR Ranking
#58
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
18/30 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 22,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,2973 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2603 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 117,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 28,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -30,5882 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -19,9673 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 29,4118 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 58,8235 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,4118 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,9163 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -6,8800 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,6400 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -8,4800 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,7400 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -4,4922 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -48,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -44,8500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7238 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2381 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5294 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,3527 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2219 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -7,9616 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2279 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1220 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8353 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8635 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,5769 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23166
API ID
15372358
Gamdom ID
601106
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23166,
"api_id": 15372358,
"gamdom_id": 601106,
"player1": "Mariano Navone",
"player2": "Hamad Medjedovic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.33
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.1,
"p2": 1.41
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.99,
"p2": 1.38
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.253,
"prob_p2": 0.747,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.747,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 74,
"utr_singles": 14.85,
"utr_ranking": 104,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 29.411764705882355,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 90,
"utr_singles": 15.24,
"utr_ranking": 58,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.85,
"ranking": 104,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.24,
"ranking": 58,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8635294117647059,
"utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 1.2972972972972974,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 117,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -8.480000000000004,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -47.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 29.411764705882355,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": -1.5768725361366638,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 28,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.2602830982636665,
"rank_advantage": 22,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5294117647058824,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -30.588235294117645,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.740000000000002,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.916313725490205,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7238095238095238,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2380952380952381,
"aces_per_match_diff": -4.492156862745098,
"combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -6.88000000000001,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.4117647058823529,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.352660438836641,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.221939509615648,
"surface_rank_synergy": -7.961600652770976,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.82352941176471,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.6400000000000077,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -44.85000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.22788235294117648,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.122,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -19.967320261437916,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}