Martin Damm Jr vs Valentin Vacherot
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 11:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Valentin Vacherot
Martin …: 38,6% Valentin …: 61,4%
¿Por qué Valentin Vacherot?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Martin … Valentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,44 36,4%
Gamdom 2,80 1,48 35,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,59 1,63 38,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Martin …: +4,2% Valentin …: -4,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Martin Damm Jr
Ranking #177
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 78% (9p)
WR Hard 15/23 = 65,2%
Valentin Vacherot
Ranking #31
UTR Rating 15,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -145,0000
rank_ratio 0,1808
log_rank_ratio -1,7104
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1136,0000
best_rank_diff -143,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -0,4076
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,8179
surface_matches_ratio 0,7188
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 65,6250
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,9630
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8889
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 12,9264
first_serve_won_diff 5,7274
second_serve_won_diff 2,1292
bp_saved_diff -0,3973
bp_converted_diff -3,6061
aces_per_match_diff 4,7120
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff 60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 36,4600
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,5625
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 4,1542
serve_consistency_p2 10,8282
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,6972
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2972
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0112
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,9188
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23167
API ID 15373162
Gamdom ID 601542
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23167,
    "api_id": 15373162,
    "gamdom_id": 601542,
    "player1": "Martin Damm Jr",
    "player2": "Valentin Vacherot",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T07:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.8,
      "p2": 1.48
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.7,
      "p2": 1.46
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3858,
    "prob_p2": 0.6142,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6142,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 177,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 77.77777777777779,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 31,
      "utr_singles": 15.59,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
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  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.59,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.1807909604519774,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": -1136,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.39728260869566157,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 60.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
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    "best_rank_diff": -143,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
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    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -0.40760869565217206,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.60611413043479,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 12.926399456521736,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.5625,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.711956521739131,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.7274456521739125,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.1542498838527635,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.828206067368654,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.6971795501796582,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.96296296296296,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.1292119565217433,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.71875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 36.459999999999994,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2971739130434783,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.011249999999999982,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.8179012345678993,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}