Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 06:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Andrey Rublev
Matteo …: 32,4% Andrey …: 67,6%
¿Por qué Andrey Rublev?
UTR 15,16 vs 15,53 (-0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Matteo … Andrey … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,28 26,7%
Gamdom 4,30 1,25 23,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,09 1,48 32,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Matteo …: +7,0% Andrey …: -7,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking #65
UTR Rating 15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/33 = 48,5%
Andrey Rublev
Ranking #15
UTR Rating 15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 22/39 = 56,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -51,0000
rank_ratio 0,2154
log_rank_ratio -1,5353
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1742,0000
best_rank_diff -25,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,9254
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,1653
surface_matches_ratio 0,8462
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,4848
surface_wr_p2 56,4103
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,6486
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,8140
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 39,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0303
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,3121
first_serve_won_diff -4,7054
second_serve_won_diff -1,2399
bp_saved_diff 1,7196
bp_converted_diff -2,6142
aces_per_match_diff -2,2937
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,9650
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 14,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5714
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1879
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4706
serve_consistency_p1 6,7308
serve_consistency_p2 8,4725
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 12,1681
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0358
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0131
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3500
utr_p1 0,8529
utr_p2 0,8941
utr_advantage -2,2690
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23168
API ID 15372355
Gamdom ID 601092
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23168,
    "api_id": 15372355,
    "gamdom_id": 601092,
    "player1": "Matteo Arnaldi",
    "player2": "Andrey Rublev",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T02:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.3,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.02,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3241,
    "prob_p2": 0.6759,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6759,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 65,
      "utr_singles": 15.16,
      "utr_ranking": 70,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 15,
      "utr_singles": 15.53,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.41025641025641,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 70,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8941176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.34999999999999964,
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    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": -1742,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.71958041958041,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
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    "rank_advantage": -51,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.925407925407924,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.614219114219111,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 39,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.3120512820512715,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1879194630872483,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.293706293706294,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.7053613053612935,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.730848148968119,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.472507557113017,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 12.168116076814186,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.81395348837209,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.2398601398601414,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.964999999999989,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 14,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03584848484848491,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.013102564102564052,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.16530483972344,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}