Matteo Berrettini vs Alex de Minaur
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Matteo …: 19,3% Alex …: 80,7%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,45 vs 15,89 (-0,38) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Matteo … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,20 22,2%
Gamdom 4,00 1,22 25,0%
IA Fair Odds 5,17 1,24 19,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Matteo …: -1,7% Alex …: +1,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matteo Berrettini
Ranking #57
UTR Rating 15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #31
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/28 = 53,6%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -50,0000
rank_ratio 0,1071
log_rank_ratio -2,2336
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -3135,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,3377
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,8210
surface_matches_ratio 0,5091
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,5714
surface_wr_p2 70,9091
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,1250
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,4915
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 55,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0714
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 15,2921
first_serve_won_diff 2,8777
second_serve_won_diff -5,8701
bp_saved_diff 3,9378
bp_converted_diff 0,9906
aces_per_match_diff 7,8071
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -19,8500
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 72,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 8,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,4099
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8100
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4762
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5882
serve_consistency_p1 13,0258
serve_consistency_p2 8,4865
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 38,7253
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0857
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1591
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3800
utr_p1 0,8929
utr_p2 0,9376
utr_advantage -2,4081
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23169
API ID 15372357
Gamdom ID 601090
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23169,
    "api_id": 15372357,
    "gamdom_id": 601090,
    "player1": "Matteo Berrettini",
    "player2": "Alex de Minaur",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T02:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.0,
      "p2": 1.22
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1934,
    "prob_p2": 0.8066,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8066,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 57,
      "utr_singles": 15.45,
      "utr_ranking": 31,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.45,
      "ranking": 31,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8929411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.9376470588235295,
    "utr_diff": -0.3800000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 0.10714285714285714,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": -3135,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.9377922077922136,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.9090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": -2.4081115335868235,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.2335922215070942,
    "rank_advantage": -50,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.47619047619047616,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.337662337662337,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.9906493506493561,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 55,
    "serve_quality_diff": 15.292097402597406,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.81,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 7.807142857142858,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.877662337662315,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.4099475055928302,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07142857142857142,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.025756063874752,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.486454127607862,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 38.7252677365191,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.125,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.870064935064931,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.509090909090909,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -19.85000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 72,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08571428571428574,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15909090909090906,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.82097457627119,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}