Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 14:30
19 Ene 2026, 14:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Casper Ruud
Mattia …: 9,9%
Casper …: 90,1%
¿Por qué Casper Ruud?
UTR 14,75 vs 15,57
(-0,96)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mattia … | Casper … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,50 | 1,20 | 22,2% |
| Gamdom | 5,20 | 1,19 | 19,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 10,07 | 1,11 | 9,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mattia …: -11,1%
Casper …: +11,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mattia Bellucci
Ranking
#76
UTR Rating
14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#122
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
12/29 = 41,4%
Casper Ruud
Ranking
#13
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -63,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1711 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,7658 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2037,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -61,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -25,2874 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -22,0666 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8788 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 41,3793 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 42,4242 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,8649 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1724 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,9660 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,0003 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,7389 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,1114 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,6502 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,0721 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,0150 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5059 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0465 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3750 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,0888 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2556 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 44,6520 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0232 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1037 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8012 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9141 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,2786 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23170
API ID
15372385
Gamdom ID
601084
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23170,
"api_id": 15372385,
"gamdom_id": 601084,
"player1": "Mattia Bellucci",
"player2": "Casper Ruud",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T10:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.5,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 5.2,
"p2": 1.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.64,
"p2": 1.19
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.0993,
"prob_p2": 0.9007,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.9007,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 76,
"utr_singles": 14.75,
"utr_ranking": 122,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.37931034482759,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 13,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 122,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9141176470588235,
"utr_diff": -0.9599999999999991,
"rank_ratio": 0.17105263157894737,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": -2037,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.1113897596656273,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 41.37931034482759,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": -6.278613472858072,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -61,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.7657839828247943,
"rank_advantage": -63,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -25.28735632183907,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.650156739811905,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.966018808777434,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5058823529411764,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.0721003134796243,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.000313479623827,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.1724137931034483,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.08878503396074,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.255635535975497,
"surface_rank_synergy": 44.652008761086734,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.42424242424242,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.738871473354223,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8787878787878788,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.015000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0232068965517242,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10366666666666657,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -22.066612066612077,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}