Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 14:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Casper Ruud
Mattia …: 9,9% Casper …: 90,1%
¿Por qué Casper Ruud?
UTR 14,75 vs 15,57 (-0,96) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mattia … Casper … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,20 22,2%
Gamdom 5,20 1,19 19,2%
IA Fair Odds 10,07 1,11 9,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Mattia …: -11,1% Casper …: +11,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mattia Bellucci
Ranking #76
UTR Rating 14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 12/29 = 41,4%
Casper Ruud
Ranking #13
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -63,0000
rank_ratio 0,1711
log_rank_ratio -1,7658
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2037,0000
best_rank_diff -61,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -25,2874
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -22,0666
surface_matches_ratio 0,8788
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,3793
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,4242
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,8649
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1724
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,9660
first_serve_won_diff -4,0003
second_serve_won_diff -2,7389
bp_saved_diff 1,1114
bp_converted_diff -10,6502
aces_per_match_diff -1,0721
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,0150
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5059
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0465
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 6,0888
serve_consistency_p2 9,2556
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 44,6520
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0232
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1037
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9600
utr_p1 0,8012
utr_p2 0,9141
utr_advantage -6,2786
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23170
API ID 15372385
Gamdom ID 601084
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23170,
    "api_id": 15372385,
    "gamdom_id": 601084,
    "player1": "Mattia Bellucci",
    "player2": "Casper Ruud",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T10:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.2,
      "p2": 1.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.64,
      "p2": 1.19
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0993,
    "prob_p2": 0.9007,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9007,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 76,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.37931034482759,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 13,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.75,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8011764705882354,
    "utr_p2": 0.9141176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.9599999999999991,
    "rank_ratio": 0.17105263157894737,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -2037,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.1113897596656273,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.37931034482759,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": -6.278613472858072,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -61,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.7657839828247943,
    "rank_advantage": -63,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -25.28735632183907,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.650156739811905,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.966018808777434,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5058823529411764,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.0721003134796243,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.000313479623827,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.1724137931034483,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.08878503396074,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.255635535975497,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 44.652008761086734,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.42424242424242,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.738871473354223,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8787878787878788,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.015000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0232068965517242,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10366666666666657,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -22.066612066612077,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}