Michael Zheng vs Sebastian Korda
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 08:45
18 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Korda
Michael …: 23,3%
Sebastian …: 76,7%
¿Por qué Sebastian Korda?
UTR 14,75 vs 15,47
(-0,80)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Michael … | Sebastian … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,50 | 1,30 | 28,6% |
| Gamdom | 3,60 | 1,33 | 27,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,29 | 1,30 | 23,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Michael …: -3,8%
Sebastian …: +3,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Michael Zheng
Ranking
#174
UTR Rating
14,75 General
UTR Ranking
#124
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (5p)
WR Hard
22/29 = 75,9%
Sebastian Korda
Ranking
#53
UTR Rating
15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/30 = 56,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -123,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2931 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2272 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -638,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -159,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 19,1954 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 16,5642 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 75,8621 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 72,7273 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,8824 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5172 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -10,6454 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,0720 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,1271 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,3308 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,1237 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -4,6356 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 64,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 42,0700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9722 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,7881 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,2674 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -23,5572 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3816 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0563 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,8000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7894 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8835 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,2945 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23171
API ID
15373173
Gamdom ID
601544
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23171,
"api_id": 15373173,
"gamdom_id": 601544,
"player1": "Michael Zheng",
"player2": "Sebastian Korda",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T04:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.5,
"p2": 1.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.6,
"p2": 1.33
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.45,
"p2": 1.3
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2332,
"prob_p2": 0.7668,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7668,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 174,
"utr_singles": 14.75,
"utr_ranking": 124,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.86206896551724,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 53,
"utr_singles": 15.47,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.666666666666664,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.75,
"ranking": 124,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8835294117647059,
"utr_diff": -0.7999999999999989,
"rank_ratio": 0.29310344827586204,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -638,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.330804597701146,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 64.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 75.86206896551724,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.666666666666664,
"utr_advantage": -5.294506949040364,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -159,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.2272296664902034,
"rank_advantage": -123,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 19.195402298850574,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.123678160919546,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": -10.645379310344836,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9722222222222222,
"aces_per_match_diff": -4.635632183908045,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 5,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.071954022988507,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5172413793103449,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.788146802635218,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.267432721443148,
"surface_rank_synergy": -23.557167161363672,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 72.72727272727273,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.88235294117647,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.1271264367816158,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 42.07,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3816206896551724,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.056333333333333346,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.564171122994658,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
},
"feature_importance": {}
}