Michael Zheng vs Sebastian Korda
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Korda
Michael …: 23,3% Sebastian …: 76,7%
¿Por qué Sebastian Korda?
UTR 14,75 vs 15,47 (-0,80) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Michael … Sebastian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,50 1,30 28,6%
Gamdom 3,60 1,33 27,8%
IA Fair Odds 4,29 1,30 23,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Michael …: -3,8% Sebastian …: +3,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Michael Zheng
Ranking #174
UTR Rating 14,75 General
UTR Ranking #124
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (5p)
WR Hard 22/29 = 75,9%
Sebastian Korda
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/30 = 56,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -123,0000
rank_ratio 0,2931
log_rank_ratio -1,2272
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -638,0000
best_rank_diff -159,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 19,1954
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 16,5642
surface_matches_ratio 0,9667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 75,8621
surface_wr_p2 56,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 72,7273
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,8824
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5172
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,6454
first_serve_won_diff -2,0720
second_serve_won_diff -1,1271
bp_saved_diff 2,3308
bp_converted_diff 7,1237
aces_per_match_diff -4,6356
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 64,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 42,0700
current_streak_diff 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9722
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 5,7881
serve_consistency_p2 12,2674
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -23,5572
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3816
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0563
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,8000
utr_p1 0,7894
utr_p2 0,8835
utr_advantage -5,2945
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23171
API ID 15373173
Gamdom ID 601544
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23171,
    "api_id": 15373173,
    "gamdom_id": 601544,
    "player1": "Michael Zheng",
    "player2": "Sebastian Korda",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T04:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.5,
      "p2": 1.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.6,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.45,
      "p2": 1.3
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2332,
    "prob_p2": 0.7668,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7668,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 174,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 124,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.86206896551724,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 15.47,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.75,
      "ranking": 124,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.47,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7894117647058825,
    "utr_p2": 0.8835294117647059,
    "utr_diff": -0.7999999999999989,
    "rank_ratio": 0.29310344827586204,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -638,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.330804597701146,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 64.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 75.86206896551724,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.666666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": -5.294506949040364,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -159,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2272296664902034,
    "rank_advantage": -123,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 19.195402298850574,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.123678160919546,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.645379310344836,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9722222222222222,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -4.635632183908045,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.071954022988507,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5172413793103449,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.788146802635218,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.267432721443148,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -23.557167161363672,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 72.72727272727273,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.88235294117647,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.1271264367816158,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 42.07,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3816206896551724,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.056333333333333346,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.564171122994658,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}