Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 05:45
19 Ene 2026, 05:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Reilly Opelka
Nicolai …: 44,3%
Reilly …: 55,7%
¿Por qué Reilly Opelka?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Nicolai … | Reilly … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,50 | 1,53 | 40,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,47 | 1,60 | 40,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,26 | 1,80 | 44,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Nicolai …: +6,4%
Reilly …: -6,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Ranking
#135
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
25/35 = 71,4%
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -73,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4593 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7781 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -427,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -115,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 11,4286 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 10,2564 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 71,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 69,2308 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 58,9744 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4286 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -20,9486 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,8486 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,8429 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -14,0429 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,9886 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -9,0857 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 52,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 32,0570 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0341 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,6018 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,0366 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -8,8930 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2873 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0270 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23173
API ID
15373172
Gamdom ID
601554
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23173,
"api_id": 15373172,
"gamdom_id": 601554,
"player1": "Nicolai Budkov Kjaer",
"player2": "Reilly Opelka",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T01:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.5,
"p2": 1.53
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.47,
"p2": 1.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.37,
"p2": 1.57
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4433,
"prob_p2": 0.5567,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5567,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 135,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
"wr_surface_wins": 25,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 63,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": -427,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -14.042857142857137,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 51.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 71.42857142857143,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
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"best_rank_diff": -115,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.7781403933933378,
"rank_advantage": -73,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 11.42857142857143,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.988571428571422,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": -20.948571428571427,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0340909090909092,
"aces_per_match_diff": -9.085714285714285,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.8485714285714323,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.42857142857142855,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.60179704492545,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.036623365516412,
"surface_rank_synergy": -8.893033067352434,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.23076923076923,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.8428571428571416,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 32.057,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.28728571428571426,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.027000000000000024,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.256410256410248,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
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"feature_importance": {}
}