Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 05:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Reilly Opelka
Nicolai …: 44,3% Reilly …: 55,7%
¿Por qué Reilly Opelka?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Nicolai … Reilly … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,50 1,53 40,0%
Gamdom 2,47 1,60 40,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,26 1,80 44,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Nicolai …: +6,4% Reilly …: -6,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Ranking #135
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 25/35 = 71,4%
Reilly Opelka
Ranking #63
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 21/35 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -73,0000
rank_ratio 0,4593
log_rank_ratio -0,7781
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -427,0000
best_rank_diff -115,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,4286
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,2564
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 71,4286
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 69,2308
surface_wr_p2_stable 58,9744
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4286
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -20,9486
first_serve_won_diff -3,8486
second_serve_won_diff -2,8429
bp_saved_diff -14,0429
bp_converted_diff 9,9886
aces_per_match_diff -9,0857
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 90,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 32,0570
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0341
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,6018
serve_consistency_p2 6,0366
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -8,8930
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2873
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0270
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8412
utr_p2 0,8412
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23173
API ID 15373172
Gamdom ID 601554
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23173,
    "api_id": 15373172,
    "gamdom_id": 601554,
    "player1": "Nicolai Budkov Kjaer",
    "player2": "Reilly Opelka",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T01:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.5,
      "p2": 1.53
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.47,
      "p2": 1.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.37,
      "p2": 1.57
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4433,
    "prob_p2": 0.5567,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5567,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 135,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
      "wr_surface_wins": 25,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 63,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": -427,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -14.042857142857137,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 51.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -115,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.7781403933933378,
    "rank_advantage": -73,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.42857142857143,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.988571428571422,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": -20.948571428571427,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0340909090909092,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -9.085714285714285,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.8485714285714323,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.42857142857142855,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.60179704492545,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.036623365516412,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -8.893033067352434,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.23076923076923,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.97435897435898,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.8428571428571416,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 32.057,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.28728571428571426,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.027000000000000024,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.256410256410248,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}