Rei Sakamoto vs Rafael Jodar
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 09:05
20 Ene 2026, 09:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Rafael Jodar
Rei …: 28,9%
Rafael …: 71,1%
¿Por qué Rafael Jodar?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Rei … | Rafael … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,05 | 1,42 | 32,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,46 | 1,41 | 28,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Rei …: -2,9%
Rafael …: +2,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Rei Sakamoto
Ranking
#203
UTR Rating
14,42 Pro
UTR Ranking
#193
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
27/48 = 56,3%
Rafael Jodar
Ranking
#150
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
78% (9p)
WR Hard
22/30 = 73,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -52,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7426 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2976 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -126,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -9,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,0833 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -14,8190 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 73,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,7692 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 70,5882 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 48,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1250 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,8867 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,9333 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,5917 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,4458 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,2833 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,3700 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,0780 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,7196 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 5,0846 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1145 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1813 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7482 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7482 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23178
API ID
15373165
Gamdom ID
601549
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23178,
"api_id": 15373165,
"gamdom_id": 601549,
"player1": "Rei Sakamoto",
"player2": "Rafael Jodar",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T05:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.05,
"p2": 1.42
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.91,
"p2": 1.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2892,
"prob_p2": 0.7108,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7108,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 203,
"utr_singles": 14.42,
"utr_ranking": 193,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 48,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 150,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 77.77777777777779,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 9
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.42,
"ranking": 193,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.748235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.748235294117647,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.7425742574257426,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -126,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.5916666666666615,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -8.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
"surface_wr_p2": 73.33333333333333,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -9,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.297632403304949,
"rank_advantage": -52,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.08333333333333,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.445833333333333,
"p1_surface_matches": 48,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.886666666666663,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.283333333333332,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.07802368759744,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.719566441229098,
"surface_rank_synergy": 5.084553556459544,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.769230769230774,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.58823529411765,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.933333333333337,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.3700000000000045,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11450000000000005,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18133333333333324,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.819004524886878,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}