Rei Sakamoto vs Rafael Jodar
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 09:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Rafael Jodar
Rei …: 28,9% Rafael …: 71,1%
¿Por qué Rafael Jodar?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Rei … Rafael … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 3,05 1,42 32,8%
IA Fair Odds 3,46 1,41 28,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Rei …: -2,9% Rafael …: +2,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Rei Sakamoto
Ranking #203
UTR Rating 14,42 Pro
UTR Ranking #193
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 27/48 = 56,3%
Rafael Jodar
Ranking #150
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 78% (9p)
WR Hard 22/30 = 73,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -52,0000
rank_ratio 0,7426
log_rank_ratio -0,2976
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -126,0000
best_rank_diff -9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,0833
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,8190
surface_matches_ratio 1,6000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,2500
surface_wr_p2 73,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,7692
surface_wr_p2_stable 70,5882
p1_surface_matches 48,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,8867
first_serve_won_diff 1,0000
second_serve_won_diff -3,9333
bp_saved_diff 3,5917
bp_converted_diff -6,4458
aces_per_match_diff 4,2833
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 90,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,3700
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 9,0780
serve_consistency_p2 8,7196
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,0846
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1145
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1813
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7482
utr_p2 0,7482
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23178
API ID 15373165
Gamdom ID 601549
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23178,
    "api_id": 15373165,
    "gamdom_id": 601549,
    "player1": "Rei Sakamoto",
    "player2": "Rafael Jodar",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T05:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.05,
      "p2": 1.42
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.91,
      "p2": 1.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2892,
    "prob_p2": 0.7108,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7108,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 203,
      "utr_singles": 14.42,
      "utr_ranking": 193,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 48,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 150,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 77.77777777777779,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.42,
      "ranking": 193,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.748235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.748235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7425742574257426,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -126,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.5916666666666615,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
    "surface_wr_p2": 73.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -9,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.297632403304949,
    "rank_advantage": -52,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.08333333333333,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.445833333333333,
    "p1_surface_matches": 48,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.886666666666663,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.283333333333332,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.07802368759744,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.719566441229098,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.084553556459544,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.769230769230774,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.58823529411765,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.933333333333337,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.6,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.3700000000000045,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11450000000000005,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18133333333333324,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.819004524886878,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}