Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 14:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shintaro …: 38,3% Stefanos …: 61,7%
¿Por qué Stefanos Tsitsipas?
UTR 14,58 vs 15,45 (-0,97) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Shintaro … Stefanos … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 5,00 1,17 20,0%
Gamdom 6,80 1,13 14,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,61 1,62 38,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Shintaro …: +19,3% Stefanos …: -19,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking #112
UTR Rating 14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking #150
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 26/43 = 60,5%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ranking #35
UTR Rating 15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #30
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/23 = 56,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -79,0000
rank_ratio 0,2946
log_rank_ratio -1,2220
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -908,0000
best_rank_diff -89,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,9434
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 3,5500
surface_matches_ratio 1,8696
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,4651
surface_wr_p2 56,5217
surface_wr_p1_stable 59,5745
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2093
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -16,8035
first_serve_won_diff -9,7100
second_serve_won_diff -6,0973
bp_saved_diff -2,2855
bp_converted_diff 5,7092
aces_per_match_diff -5,0597
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 2,0000
momentum_p2 58,0000
momentum_diff -56,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -56,4800
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7342
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2295
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2857
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6154
serve_consistency_p1 9,9996
serve_consistency_p2 7,3554
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,8188
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1837
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0138
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9700
utr_p1 0,7788
utr_p2 0,8929
utr_advantage -6,4217
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23179
API ID 15372367
Gamdom ID 601118
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23179,
    "api_id": 15372367,
    "gamdom_id": 601118,
    "player1": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
    "player2": "Stefanos Tsitsipas",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T10:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 5.0,
      "p2": 1.17
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 6.8,
      "p2": 1.13
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 6.2,
      "p2": 1.12
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3828,
    "prob_p2": 0.6172,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6172,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 112,
      "utr_singles": 14.58,
      "utr_ranking": 150,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 35,
      "utr_singles": 15.45,
      "utr_ranking": 30,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.52173913043478,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.58,
      "ranking": 150,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 30,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8929411764705882,
    "utr_diff": -0.9700000000000006,
    "rank_ratio": 0.29464285714285715,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 2.0,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -908,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.285540950455008,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -55.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.46511627906976,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.52173913043478,
    "utr_advantage": -6.421714664018541,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -89,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2219913098286144,
    "rank_advantage": -79,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2857142857142857,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.94337714863498,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.709201213346816,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": -16.803498483316474,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7341772151898734,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2295081967213115,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -5.059656218402426,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -9.71001011122344,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.20930232558139536,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.999557511635125,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.355364402815675,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.818772607008685,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.57446808510638,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.097269969666321,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.8695652173913044,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -56.480000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1836511627906976,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.013782608695652177,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.5500394011032284,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}