Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 14:00
20 Ene 2026, 14:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shintaro …: 38,3%
Stefanos …: 61,7%
¿Por qué Stefanos Tsitsipas?
UTR 14,58 vs 15,45
(-0,97)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Shintaro … | Stefanos … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 5,00 | 1,17 | 20,0% |
| Gamdom | 6,80 | 1,13 | 14,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,61 | 1,62 | 38,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Shintaro …: +19,3%
Stefanos …: -19,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking
#112
UTR Rating
14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking
#150
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
26/43 = 60,5%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ranking
#35
UTR Rating
15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#30
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
13/23 = 56,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -79,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2946 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2220 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -908,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -89,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,9434 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 3,5500 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,8696 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,4651 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,5217 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 59,5745 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,5556 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2093 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -16,8035 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -9,7100 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,0973 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,2855 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,7092 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -5,0597 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -56,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -56,4800 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7342 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2295 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2857 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6154 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,9996 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,3554 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,8188 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1837 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0138 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8929 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,4217 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23179
API ID
15372367
Gamdom ID
601118
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23179,
"api_id": 15372367,
"gamdom_id": 601118,
"player1": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
"player2": "Stefanos Tsitsipas",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T10:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 5.0,
"p2": 1.17
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 6.8,
"p2": 1.13
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 6.2,
"p2": 1.12
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3828,
"prob_p2": 0.6172,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6172,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 112,
"utr_singles": 14.58,
"utr_ranking": 150,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 35,
"utr_singles": 15.45,
"utr_ranking": 30,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.52173913043478,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 150,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 30,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.9700000000000006,
"rank_ratio": 0.29464285714285715,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 2.0,
"momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -908,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.285540950455008,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -55.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.46511627906976,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.52173913043478,
"utr_advantage": -6.421714664018541,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -89,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.2219913098286144,
"rank_advantage": -79,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2857142857142857,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.94337714863498,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.709201213346816,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": -16.803498483316474,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7341772151898734,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2295081967213115,
"aces_per_match_diff": -5.059656218402426,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -9.71001011122344,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.20930232558139536,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.999557511635125,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.355364402815675,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.818772607008685,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.57446808510638,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.097269969666321,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.8695652173913044,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -56.480000000000004,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1836511627906976,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.013782608695652177,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.5500394011032284,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}