Tommy Paul vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 05:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tommy …: 82,5% Aleksandar …: 17,5%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,63 vs 14,80 (+1,15) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tommy … Aleksandar … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,14 5,50 87,7%
Gamdom 1,19 5,20 84,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,21 5,71 82,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Tommy …: -0,3% Aleksandar …: +0,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Ranking #56
UTR Rating 14,80 Pro
UTR Ranking #127
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 24/46 = 52,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 33,0000
rank_ratio 2,5714
log_rank_ratio 0,9445
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1036,0000
best_rank_diff 46,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 17,3913
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,9556
surface_matches_ratio 0,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,5652
surface_wr_p2 52,1739
surface_wr_p1_stable 66,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,0000
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 46,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3913
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,5291
first_serve_won_diff -1,6000
second_serve_won_diff 3,6565
bp_saved_diff -1,2783
bp_converted_diff 7,1913
aces_per_match_diff -0,4130
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 36,2100
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1093
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4167
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4500
serve_consistency_p1 4,0145
serve_consistency_p2 7,7611
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 16,4254
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1627
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0547
elite_surface_amplifier 17,3913
UTR
utr_diff 1,1500
utr_p1 0,9129
utr_p2 0,7776
utr_advantage 7,5733
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23182
API ID 15372344
Gamdom ID 601124
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23182,
    "api_id": 15372344,
    "gamdom_id": 601124,
    "player1": "Tommy Paul",
    "player2": "Aleksandar Kovacevic",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T01:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.1400000000000001,
      "p2": 5.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.19,
      "p2": 5.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 4.8
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.825,
    "prob_p2": 0.175,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.825,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 56,
      "utr_singles": 14.8,
      "utr_ranking": 127,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 52.17391304347826,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.8,
      "ranking": 127,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9129411764705883,
    "utr_p2": 0.7776470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 1.1500000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 2.5714285714285716,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 1036,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.2782608695652158,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 42.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.56521739130434,
    "surface_wr_p2": 52.17391304347826,
    "utr_advantage": 7.5732630885742545,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 46,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.9444616088408515,
    "rank_advantage": 33,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4166666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.45,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 17.391304347826086,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.19130434782609,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 46,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.5291304347826156,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1093247588424437,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.41304347826087007,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.5999999999999943,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.391304347826087,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.014492626433483,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.761142540709341,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 16.42541928418872,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.656521739130433,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 36.21000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 17.391304347826086,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16265217391304354,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05473913043478251,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.955555555555547,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}