Tommy Paul vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 05:30
19 Ene 2026, 05:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tommy …: 82,5%
Aleksandar …: 17,5%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,63 vs 14,80
(+1,15)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tommy … | Aleksandar … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,14 | 5,50 | 87,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,19 | 5,20 | 84,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,21 | 5,71 | 82,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tommy …: -0,3%
Aleksandar …: +0,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tommy Paul
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/23 = 69,6%
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Ranking
#56
UTR Rating
14,80 Pro
UTR Ranking
#127
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
24/46 = 52,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 33,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,5714 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,9445 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1036,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 46,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 17,3913 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,9556 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,5652 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 52,1739 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3913 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,5291 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,6565 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,2783 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,1913 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4130 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 42,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 36,2100 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1093 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4167 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,0145 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,7611 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 16,4254 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1627 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0547 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 17,3913 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,1500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9129 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7776 | |
| utr_advantage | 7,5733 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23182
API ID
15372344
Gamdom ID
601124
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23182,
"api_id": 15372344,
"gamdom_id": 601124,
"player1": "Tommy Paul",
"player2": "Aleksandar Kovacevic",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T01:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.1400000000000001,
"p2": 5.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.19,
"p2": 5.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.18,
"p2": 4.8
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.825,
"prob_p2": 0.175,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.825,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.63,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 56,
"utr_singles": 14.8,
"utr_ranking": 127,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 52.17391304347826,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.63,
"ranking": 15,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.8,
"ranking": 127,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9129411764705883,
"utr_p2": 0.7776470588235294,
"utr_diff": 1.1500000000000004,
"rank_ratio": 2.5714285714285716,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 72.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 1036,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.2782608695652158,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 42.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.56521739130434,
"surface_wr_p2": 52.17391304347826,
"utr_advantage": 7.5732630885742545,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 46,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.9444616088408515,
"rank_advantage": 33,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4166666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.45,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 17.391304347826086,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.19130434782609,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 46,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.5291304347826156,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1093247588424437,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.41304347826087007,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.5999999999999943,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.391304347826087,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.014492626433483,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.761142540709341,
"surface_rank_synergy": 16.42541928418872,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.656521739130433,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 36.21000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 17.391304347826086,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16265217391304354,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05473913043478251,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.955555555555547,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}