Valentin Royer vs Taylor Fritz
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 10:50
20 Ene 2026, 10:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Taylor Fritz
Valentin …: 32,2%
Taylor …: 67,8%
¿Por qué Taylor Fritz?
UTR 15,09 vs 15,71
(-0,63)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Valentin … | Taylor … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 5,50 | 1,14 | 18,2% |
| Gamdom | 6,80 | 1,13 | 14,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,10 | 1,48 | 32,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Valentin …: +15,1%
Taylor …: -15,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Valentin Royer
Ranking
#58
UTR Rating
15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
24/40 = 60,0%
Taylor Fritz
Ranking
#9
UTR Rating
15,71 Pro
UTR Ranking
#11
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
34/50 = 68,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -48,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1579 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,8458 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2916,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -52,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -8,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,5758 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 59,0909 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -14,1994 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,4880 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0820 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,2820 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,9420 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -5,7400 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -19,4660 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2213 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5294 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5172 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,2368 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,1417 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 14,7666 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1480 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1320 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8471 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9212 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,0606 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23184
API ID
15372376
Gamdom ID
601096
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23184,
"api_id": 15372376,
"gamdom_id": 601096,
"player1": "Valentin Royer",
"player2": "Taylor Fritz",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T06:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 5.5,
"p2": 1.1400000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 6.8,
"p2": 1.13
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 6.11,
"p2": 1.12
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3222,
"prob_p2": 0.6778,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6778,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 58,
"utr_singles": 15.09,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 9,
"utr_singles": 15.71,
"utr_ranking": 11,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 68.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 50,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 11,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9211764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.6300000000000008,
"rank_ratio": 0.15789473684210525,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": -2916,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.2819999999999965,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -20.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 68.0,
"utr_advantage": -4.060586529165329,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -52,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.845826690498331,
"rank_advantage": -48,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5294117647058824,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5172413793103449,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -8.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.941999999999993,
"p1_surface_matches": 40,
"p2_surface_matches": 50,
"serve_quality_diff": -14.199399999999997,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.221276595744681,
"aces_per_match_diff": -5.74,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.4879999999999995,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.236789923400934,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.141708758080511,
"surface_rank_synergy": 14.766613523986647,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.09090909090909,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.08199999999999363,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -19.466000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14800000000000002,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.132,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.575757575757564,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}