Valentin Royer vs Taylor Fritz
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 10:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Taylor Fritz
Valentin …: 32,2% Taylor …: 67,8%
¿Por qué Taylor Fritz?
UTR 15,09 vs 15,71 (-0,63) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Valentin … Taylor … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 5,50 1,14 18,2%
Gamdom 6,80 1,13 14,7%
IA Fair Odds 3,10 1,48 32,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Valentin …: +15,1% Taylor …: -15,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Valentin Royer
Ranking #58
UTR Rating 15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 24/40 = 60,0%
Taylor Fritz
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 15,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #11
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 34/50 = 68,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -48,0000
rank_ratio 0,1579
log_rank_ratio -1,8458
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -2916,0000
best_rank_diff -52,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,5758
surface_matches_ratio 0,8000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 68,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 59,0909
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 40,0000
p2_surface_matches 50,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -14,1994
first_serve_won_diff -5,4880
second_serve_won_diff 0,0820
bp_saved_diff -6,2820
bp_converted_diff 4,9420
aces_per_match_diff -5,7400
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -19,4660
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2213
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5294
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5172
serve_consistency_p1 8,2368
serve_consistency_p2 6,1417
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 14,7666
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1480
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1320
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6300
utr_p1 0,8471
utr_p2 0,9212
utr_advantage -4,0606
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23184
API ID 15372376
Gamdom ID 601096
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23184,
    "api_id": 15372376,
    "gamdom_id": 601096,
    "player1": "Valentin Royer",
    "player2": "Taylor Fritz",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T06:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 5.5,
      "p2": 1.1400000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 6.8,
      "p2": 1.13
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 6.11,
      "p2": 1.12
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3222,
    "prob_p2": 0.6778,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6778,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 58,
      "utr_singles": 15.09,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 15.71,
      "utr_ranking": 11,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 50,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.09,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.71,
      "ranking": 11,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8470588235294116,
    "utr_p2": 0.9211764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.6300000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 0.15789473684210525,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -2916,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.2819999999999965,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.0,
    "utr_advantage": -4.060586529165329,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -52,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.845826690498331,
    "rank_advantage": -48,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5294117647058824,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5172413793103449,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.941999999999993,
    "p1_surface_matches": 40,
    "p2_surface_matches": 50,
    "serve_quality_diff": -14.199399999999997,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.221276595744681,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -5.74,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.4879999999999995,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.236789923400934,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.141708758080511,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 14.766613523986647,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.09090909090909,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.08199999999999363,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -19.466000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14800000000000002,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.132,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.575757575757564,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}