Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Jasmine Paolini
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jasmine Paolini
Aliaksandra …: 14,0% Jasmine …: 86,0%
¿Por qué Jasmine Paolini?
UTR 12,29 vs 12,59 (-0,45) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aliaksandra … Jasmine … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 3,35 1,36 29,9%
IA Fair Odds 7,14 1,16 14,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Aliaksandra …: -15,8% Jasmine …: +15,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Ranking #104
UTR Rating 12,29 Pro
UTR Ranking #42
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 15/31 = 48,4%
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking #8
UTR Rating 12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #17
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 27/41 = 65,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -95,0000
rank_ratio 0,0686
log_rank_ratio -2,6791
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -3512,0000
best_rank_diff -25,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,4666
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,8730
surface_matches_ratio 0,7561
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,3871
surface_wr_p2 65,8537
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,4444
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,9400
first_serve_won_diff 1,8442
second_serve_won_diff -3,2474
bp_saved_diff -2,6703
bp_converted_diff -3,5264
aces_per_match_diff 0,9961
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 31,1000
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 11,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5745
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7000
serve_consistency_p1 11,4692
serve_consistency_p2 14,7870
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 46,7940
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0789
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0635
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4500
utr_p1 0,4871
utr_p2 0,5400
utr_advantage -3,6393
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23187
API ID 15373430
Gamdom ID 601582
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23187,
    "api_id": 15373430,
    "gamdom_id": 601582,
    "player1": "Aliaksandra Sasnovich",
    "player2": "Jasmine Paolini",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.35,
      "p2": 1.36
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.15,
      "p2": 1.35
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.14,
    "prob_p2": 0.86,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.86,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 104,
      "utr_singles": 12.29,
      "utr_ranking": 42,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 8,
      "utr_singles": 12.59,
      "utr_ranking": 17,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.29,
      "ranking": 42,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.59,
      "ranking": 17,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4870588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.54,
    "utr_diff": -0.4499999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.06862745098039216,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -3512,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.6702596380802532,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 52.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.85365853658537,
    "utr_advantage": -3.6393044884755303,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -25,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.6790626642289577,
    "rank_advantage": -95,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.46656176239182,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.526435877262003,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.9400314712824525,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.574468085106383,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7569444444444444,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.996066089693155,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.8442171518489374,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.469157794282317,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 14.786981261055782,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 46.79401349007306,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.2473642800944233,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7560975609756098,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 31.099999999999994,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07887096774193547,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06353658536585371,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.873015873015873,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}