Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Jasmine Paolini
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:30
18 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jasmine Paolini
Aliaksandra …: 14,0%
Jasmine …: 86,0%
¿Por qué Jasmine Paolini?
UTR 12,29 vs 12,59
(-0,45)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aliaksandra … | Jasmine … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,35 | 1,36 | 29,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,14 | 1,16 | 14,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aliaksandra …: -15,8%
Jasmine …: +15,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Ranking
#104
UTR Rating
12,29 Pro
UTR Ranking
#42
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
15/31 = 48,4%
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking
#8
UTR Rating
12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#17
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
27/41 = 65,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -95,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0686 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,6791 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3512,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -25,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,4666 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -15,8730 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7561 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,8537 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,4444 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0323 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,9400 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,8442 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,2474 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,6703 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,5264 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,9961 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 52,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 31,1000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 11,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5745 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7569 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,4692 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 14,7870 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 46,7940 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0789 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0635 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4871 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5400 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,6393 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23187
API ID
15373430
Gamdom ID
601582
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23187,
"api_id": 15373430,
"gamdom_id": 601582,
"player1": "Aliaksandra Sasnovich",
"player2": "Jasmine Paolini",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.35,
"p2": 1.36
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.15,
"p2": 1.35
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.14,
"prob_p2": 0.86,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.86,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 104,
"utr_singles": 12.29,
"utr_ranking": 42,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 8,
"utr_singles": 12.59,
"utr_ranking": 17,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 42,
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"ranking": 17,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.54,
"utr_diff": -0.4499999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.06862745098039216,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -3512,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.6702596380802532,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 52.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.85365853658537,
"utr_advantage": -3.6393044884755303,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -25,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.6790626642289577,
"rank_advantage": -95,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.46656176239182,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.526435877262003,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.9400314712824525,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.574468085106383,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7569444444444444,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.996066089693155,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.8442171518489374,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.469157794282317,
"serve_consistency_p2": 14.786981261055782,
"surface_rank_synergy": 46.79401349007306,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.44444444444444,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.2473642800944233,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7560975609756098,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 31.099999999999994,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07887096774193547,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06353658536585371,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.873015873015873,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}