Aryna Sabalenka vs Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 12:15
18 Ene 2026, 12:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 96,9%
Tiantsoa …: 3,1%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 11,50
(+1,37)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Tiantsoa … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,00 | 51,00 | 100,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,01 | 24,00 | 99,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,03 | 32,26 | 96,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: -1,2%
Tiantsoa …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah
Ranking
#118
UTR Rating
11,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#258
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
4/11 = 36,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 117,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 118,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 4,7707 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 4,0000 | |
| points_diff | 10350,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 116,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 49,3506 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 30,8203 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,8182 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 36,3636 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 11,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4467 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7233 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 8,9172 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,8749 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,3481 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 18,8846 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,0219 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,8377 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 72,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 50,1400 | |
| current_streak_diff | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,4907 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,9320 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 235,4364 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2401 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0194 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 197,4026 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,3700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4176 | |
| utr_advantage | 11,1974 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23193
API ID
15372287
Gamdom ID
601067
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23193,
"api_id": 15372287,
"gamdom_id": 601067,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T08:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.0,
"p2": 51.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 24.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.01,
"p2": 28.54
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.969,
"prob_p2": 0.031,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.969,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 118,
"utr_singles": 11.5,
"utr_ranking": 258,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 36.36363636363637,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 11,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 2,
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},
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"ranking": 258,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 1.3699999999999992,
"rank_ratio": 118.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 10350,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 18.884632034632034,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 71.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 36.36363636363637,
"utr_advantage": 11.197384552513276,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 116,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 4.770684624465665,
"rank_advantage": 117,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": 49.35064935064934,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.021861471861463,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 11,
"serve_quality_diff": 8.91718614718615,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.8376623376623376,
"combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 7,
"rank_tier_advantage": 4,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.874891774891779,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.490742871159277,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.932049696361133,
"surface_rank_synergy": 235.43638406453928,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.348051948051946,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.8181818181818183,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 50.14,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 197.40259740259737,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2401428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.01936363636363636,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 30.82028985507246,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}