Aryna Sabalenka vs Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 12:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 96,9% Tiantsoa …: 3,1%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 11,50 (+1,37) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Tiantsoa … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,00 51,00 100,0%
Gamdom 1,01 24,00 99,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,03 32,26 96,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: -1,2% Tiantsoa …: +1,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah
Ranking #118
UTR Rating 11,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #258
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 4/11 = 36,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 117,0000
rank_ratio 118,0000
log_rank_ratio 4,7707
rank_tier_advantage 4,0000
points_diff 10350,0000
best_rank_diff 116,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 49,3506
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 30,8203
surface_matches_ratio 3,8182
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 36,3636
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 11,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4467
combined_confidence 0,7233
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 8,9172
first_serve_won_diff 7,8749
second_serve_won_diff 4,3481
bp_saved_diff 18,8846
bp_converted_diff 4,0219
aces_per_match_diff 1,8377
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 72,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 50,1400
current_streak_diff 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,4907
serve_consistency_p2 8,9320
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 235,4364
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2401
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0194
elite_surface_amplifier 197,4026
UTR
utr_diff 1,3700
utr_p1 0,5788
utr_p2 0,4176
utr_advantage 11,1974
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23193
API ID 15372287
Gamdom ID 601067
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23193,
    "api_id": 15372287,
    "gamdom_id": 601067,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T08:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0,
      "p2": 51.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 24.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.01,
      "p2": 28.54
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.969,
    "prob_p2": 0.031,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.969,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 118,
      "utr_singles": 11.5,
      "utr_ranking": 258,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 36.36363636363637,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.5,
      "ranking": 258,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.4176470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 1.3699999999999992,
    "rank_ratio": 118.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 10350,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 18.884632034632034,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 71.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 36.36363636363637,
    "utr_advantage": 11.197384552513276,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 116,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 4.770684624465665,
    "rank_advantage": 117,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 49.35064935064934,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.021861471861463,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 11,
    "serve_quality_diff": 8.91718614718615,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.8376623376623376,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7233333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 7,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.874891774891779,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.490742871159277,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.932049696361133,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 235.43638406453928,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.348051948051946,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.8181818181818183,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 50.14,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 197.40259740259737,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2401428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.01936363636363636,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 30.82028985507246,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}