Catherine McNally vs Himeno Sakatsume
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 06:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Catherine McNally
Catherine …: 53,9% Himeno …: 46,1%
¿Por qué Catherine McNally?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Catherine … Himeno … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,20 73,5%
Gamdom 1,45 2,90 69,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,85 2,17 53,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Catherine …: -16,3% Himeno …: +16,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Catherine McNally
Ranking #85
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 11/21 = 52,4%
Himeno Sakatsume
Ranking #140
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #94
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 57,0000
rank_ratio 1,6867
log_rank_ratio 0,5228
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 322,0000
best_rank_diff 86,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -4,7619
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,8175
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 52,3810
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 52,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,3247
p1_surface_matches 21,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0476
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7000
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,5467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,9995
first_serve_won_diff -7,9000
second_serve_won_diff 9,2000
bp_saved_diff 14,4000
bp_converted_diff -0,6000
aces_per_match_diff -0,9048
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff -42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -20,7910
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 9,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4648
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 4,9252
serve_consistency_p2 5,8137
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,4895
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0332
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1284
elite_surface_amplifier -4,7619
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4400
utr_p2 0,4400
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23196
API ID 15373441
Gamdom ID 601590
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23196,
    "api_id": 15373441,
    "gamdom_id": 601590,
    "player1": "Catherine McNally",
    "player2": "Himeno Sakatsume",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T02:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3599999999999999,
      "p2": 3.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.45,
      "p2": 2.9
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5391,
    "prob_p2": 0.4609,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5391,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 85,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 52.38095238095239,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 140,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
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      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
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  },
  "utr": {
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    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 94,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
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  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_diff": 0.0,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 322,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 14.400000000000006,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 9,
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    "p1_confidence": 0.7,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 52.38095238095239,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
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    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
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    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": -4.761904761904752,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.6000000000000014,
    "p1_surface_matches": 21,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.999523809523801,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4647887323943662,
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    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.9047619047619047,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5466666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.8999999999999915,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.047619047619047616,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.925222280095215,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.813695363354511,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.4895324514890733,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 9.20000000000001,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
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    "elite_surface_amplifier": -4.761904761904752,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
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    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.033190476190476104,
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    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.8174891774891742,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}