Daria Kasatkina vs Nikola Bartunkova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 14:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Kasatkina
Daria …: 55,6% Nikola …: 44,4%
¿Por qué Daria Kasatkina?
UTR 12,18 vs 11,99 (+0,21) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daria … Nikola … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 3,00 71,4%
Gamdom 1,45 2,95 69,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,80 2,25 55,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Daria …: -12,5% Nikola …: +12,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking #43
UTR Rating 12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #58
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Nikola Bartunkova
Ranking #126
UTR Rating 11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking #102
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 78,0000
rank_ratio 2,6250
log_rank_ratio 0,9651
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 586,0000
best_rank_diff 118,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,5556
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,5978
surface_matches_ratio 2,7778
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,0000
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,2759
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,0171
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0400
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,6267
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,1856
first_serve_won_diff -2,0111
second_serve_won_diff -8,3778
bp_saved_diff -4,8444
bp_converted_diff 8,1222
aces_per_match_diff -1,3333
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -37,6640
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6488
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 6,9184
serve_consistency_p2 10,8515
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -7,2917
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0980
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1336
elite_surface_amplifier -15,1111
UTR
utr_diff 0,2100
utr_p1 0,4941
utr_p2 0,4694
utr_advantage 1,7363
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23199
API ID 15373440
Gamdom ID 601587
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23199,
    "api_id": 15373440,
    "gamdom_id": 601587,
    "player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
    "player2": "Nikola Bartunkova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T10:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 3.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.45,
      "p2": 2.95
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.45,
      "p2": 2.74
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5564,
    "prob_p2": 0.4436,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5564,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 43,
      "utr_singles": 12.18,
      "utr_ranking": 58,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 126,
      "utr_singles": 11.99,
      "utr_ranking": 102,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.18,
      "ranking": 58,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.99,
      "ranking": 102,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.49411764705882344,
    "utr_p2": 0.46941176470588236,
    "utr_diff": 0.20999999999999908,
    "rank_ratio": 2.625,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 586,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.8444444444444485,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -59.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": 1.7362546506820924,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 118,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.965080896043587,
    "rank_advantage": 78,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.555555555555557,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.122222222222227,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.18555555555556,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.3333333333333335,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6266666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.01111111111112,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.918446148324845,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.851497551838307,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -7.2917223256626595,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.01709401709402,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -8.377777777777794,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.7777777777777777,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -37.664,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -15.111111111111114,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09800000000000009,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13355555555555565,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.5978386874938604,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}