Daria Kasatkina vs Nikola Bartunkova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 14:25
20 Ene 2026, 14:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Kasatkina
Daria …: 55,6%
Nikola …: 44,4%
¿Por qué Daria Kasatkina?
UTR 12,18 vs 11,99
(+0,21)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daria … | Nikola … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,40 | 3,00 | 71,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,45 | 2,95 | 69,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,80 | 2,25 | 55,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daria …: -12,5%
Nikola …: +12,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking
#43
UTR Rating
12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#58
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
12/25 = 48,0%
Nikola Bartunkova
Ranking
#126
UTR Rating
11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking
#102
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 78,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,6250 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,9651 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 586,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 118,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,5556 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,5978 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,7778 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,2759 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,0171 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0400 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6267 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,1856 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,0111 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -8,3778 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,8444 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,1222 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,3333 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -60,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -37,6640 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6488 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9184 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,8515 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -7,2917 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0980 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1336 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -15,1111 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4941 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4694 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,7363 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23199
API ID
15373440
Gamdom ID
601587
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23199,
"api_id": 15373440,
"gamdom_id": 601587,
"player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
"player2": "Nikola Bartunkova",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T10:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 3.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.45,
"p2": 2.95
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.45,
"p2": 2.74
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5564,
"prob_p2": 0.4436,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5564,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 43,
"utr_singles": 12.18,
"utr_ranking": 58,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 126,
"utr_singles": 11.99,
"utr_ranking": 102,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.18,
"ranking": 58,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.99,
"ranking": 102,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.46941176470588236,
"utr_diff": 0.20999999999999908,
"rank_ratio": 2.625,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 586,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.8444444444444485,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -59.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.42,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": 1.7362546506820924,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 118,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.965080896043587,
"rank_advantage": 78,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.555555555555557,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.122222222222227,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 9,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.18555555555556,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.3333333333333335,
"combined_confidence": 0.6266666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.01111111111112,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.918446148324845,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.851497551838307,
"surface_rank_synergy": -7.2917223256626595,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.01709401709402,
"second_serve_won_diff": -8.377777777777794,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.7777777777777777,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -37.664,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -15.111111111111114,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09800000000000009,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.13355555555555565,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.5978386874938604,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}