Dayana Yastremska vs Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Dayana Yastremska
Dayana …: 61,3% Elena-Gabriela …: 38,7%
¿Por qué Dayana Yastremska?
UTR 12,26 vs 12,16 (+0,16) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dayana … Elena-Gabriela … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,20 59,9%
Gamdom 1,78 2,14 56,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,63 2,58 61,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Dayana …: +4,4% Elena-Gabriela …: -4,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #51
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Ranking #79
UTR Rating 12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #63
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 12/24 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 52,0000
rank_ratio 2,9259
log_rank_ratio 1,0736
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 761,0000
best_rank_diff 30,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 5,1724
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,0152
surface_matches_ratio 1,2083
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 24,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,8000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,0047
first_serve_won_diff -2,9029
second_serve_won_diff 10,1124
bp_saved_diff 7,5272
bp_converted_diff -2,1779
aces_per_match_diff 0,2112
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -24,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -16,1500
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8083
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6154
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 18,1289
serve_consistency_p2 15,6631
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,5532
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0003
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0520
elite_surface_amplifier 5,1724
UTR
utr_diff 0,1600
utr_p1 0,5059
utr_p2 0,4871
utr_advantage 1,3093
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23200
API ID 15372319
Gamdom ID 601041
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23200,
    "api_id": 15372319,
    "gamdom_id": 601041,
    "player1": "Dayana Yastremska",
    "player2": "Elena-Gabriela Ruse",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.78,
      "p2": 2.14
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.72,
      "p2": 2.1
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6128,
    "prob_p2": 0.3872,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6128,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 51,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 79,
      "utr_singles": 12.16,
      "utr_ranking": 63,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 51,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.16,
      "ranking": 63,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5058823529411766,
    "utr_p2": 0.4870588235294118,
    "utr_diff": 0.16000000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 2.925925925925926,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 761,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.527155172413799,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -23.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.3093289689034382,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 30,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.0736109864626924,
    "rank_advantage": 52,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 5.172413793103445,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.177873563218391,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 24,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.0046839080459833,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8083333333333333,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6153846153846154,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.2112068965517242,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.9028735632183853,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 18.128865363294867,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 15.663089397736313,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.553160274807026,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 10.112356321839073,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2083333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -16.15,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 5.172413793103445,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0002758620689655711,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.052000000000000046,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.01515151515151,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}