Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Zeynep Sonmez
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 08:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ekaterina …: 81,3% Zeynep …: 18,7%
¿Por qué Ekaterina Alexandrova?
UTR 12,74 vs 12,11 (+0,84) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ekaterina … Zeynep … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,27 4,10 78,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,23 5,34 81,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Ekaterina …: +8,3% Zeynep …: -8,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ranking #11
UTR Rating 12,74 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 24/40 = 60,0%
Zeynep Sonmez
Ranking #112
UTR Rating 12,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #76
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/33 = 48,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 101,0000
rank_ratio 10,1818
log_rank_ratio 2,3206
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 2681,0000
best_rank_diff 59,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,5152
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,4423
surface_matches_ratio 1,2121
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 48,4848
surface_wr_p1_stable 59,0909
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,6486
p1_surface_matches 40,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 9,9639
first_serve_won_diff 5,3011
second_serve_won_diff -1,8443
bp_saved_diff 9,6735
bp_converted_diff 1,3034
aces_per_match_diff 3,9333
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff -72,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -44,3960
current_streak_diff -5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0568
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6019
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2222
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 12,3140
serve_consistency_p2 5,6444
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 26,7221
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0010
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0858
elite_surface_amplifier 34,5455
UTR
utr_diff 0,8400
utr_p1 0,5647
utr_p2 0,4659
utr_advantage 6,7851
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23202
API ID 15373432
Gamdom ID 601598
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23202,
    "api_id": 15373432,
    "gamdom_id": 601598,
    "player1": "Ekaterina Alexandrova",
    "player2": "Zeynep Sonmez",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T04:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.27,
      "p2": 4.1
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.27,
      "p2": 3.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8126,
    "prob_p2": 0.1874,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8126,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 11,
      "utr_singles": 12.74,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 112,
      "utr_singles": 12.11,
      "utr_ranking": 76,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.74,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.11,
      "ranking": 76,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5647058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.4658823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.8399999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 10.181818181818182,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 2681,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.673484848484847,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -72.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 48.484848484848484,
    "utr_advantage": 6.7851373182552495,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 59,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.320603598496724,
    "rank_advantage": 101,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2222222222222222,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.515151515151516,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.303409090909085,
    "p1_surface_matches": 40,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 9.963939393939391,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0568181818181819,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6018518518518519,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.933333333333333,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.301136363636367,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.314036164643287,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.644435285490162,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 26.72210204329561,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.09090909090909,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.64864864864865,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.8443181818181813,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2121212121212122,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -44.39600000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 34.54545454545455,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0010000000000000009,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08584848484848484,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.44226044226044,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}