Elena Rybakina vs Kaja Juvan
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 08:15
20 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 89,5%
Kaja …: 10,5%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,12
(+0,73)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Kaja … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,05 | 11,00 | 95,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,04 | 15,00 | 96,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,12 | 9,53 | 89,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: -1,8%
Kaja …: +1,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Kaja Juvan
Ranking
#100
UTR Rating
12,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#74
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
9/16 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 92,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 19,4000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,9653 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 5080,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 55,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 21,9318 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 16,3079 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,4375 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 16,1127 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 12,1480 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,7200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,1830 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,1230 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,4614 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 38,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 43,3390 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,5631 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,4101 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 65,0338 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1898 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1545 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 65,7955 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,7300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4894 | |
| utr_advantage | 5,8283 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23203
API ID
15372323
Gamdom ID
601060
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23203,
"api_id": 15372323,
"gamdom_id": 601060,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Kaja Juvan",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T04:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.05,
"p2": 11.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.04,
"p2": 15.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.03,
"p2": 12.92
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8951,
"prob_p2": 0.1049,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8951,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 100,
"utr_singles": 12.12,
"utr_ranking": 74,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.12,
"ranking": 74,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.4894117647058824,
"utr_diff": 0.7300000000000004,
"rank_ratio": 19.4,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": 5080,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.18295454545455,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 38.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
"utr_advantage": 5.8283433133732565,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 55,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.9652730660692823,
"rank_advantage": 92,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.25,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 21.931818181818187,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.122954545454533,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 16,
"serve_quality_diff": 16.112704545454548,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.461363636363636,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 12.147954545454546,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.563142586754671,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.410086464325533,
"surface_rank_synergy": 65.03382974447405,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.720000000000006,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.4375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 43.33900000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 65.79545454545456,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.18981818181818177,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15450000000000008,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.307909604519768,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}