Elena Rybakina vs Kaja Juvan
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 89,5% Kaja …: 10,5%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,12 (+0,73) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena … Kaja … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,05 11,00 95,2%
Gamdom 1,04 15,00 96,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,12 9,53 89,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena …: -1,8% Kaja …: +1,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Kaja Juvan
Ranking #100
UTR Rating 12,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #74
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 9/16 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 92,0000
rank_ratio 19,4000
log_rank_ratio 2,9653
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 5080,0000
best_rank_diff 55,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 21,9318
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 16,3079
surface_matches_ratio 3,4375
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,1818
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 76,2712
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,0000
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 16,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5636
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,5333
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 16,1127
first_serve_won_diff 12,1480
second_serve_won_diff 3,7200
bp_saved_diff 7,1830
bp_converted_diff 4,1230
aces_per_match_diff 4,4614
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 43,3390
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8980
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6471
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2500
serve_consistency_p1 5,5631
serve_consistency_p2 6,4101
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 65,0338
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1898
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1545
elite_surface_amplifier 65,7955
UTR
utr_diff 0,7300
utr_p1 0,5753
utr_p2 0,4894
utr_advantage 5,8283
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23203
API ID 15372323
Gamdom ID 601060
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23203,
    "api_id": 15372323,
    "gamdom_id": 601060,
    "player1": "Elena Rybakina",
    "player2": "Kaja Juvan",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T04:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.05,
      "p2": 11.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 15.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.03,
      "p2": 12.92
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8951,
    "prob_p2": 0.1049,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8951,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 100,
      "utr_singles": 12.12,
      "utr_ranking": 74,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.12,
      "ranking": 74,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5752941176470588,
    "utr_p2": 0.4894117647058824,
    "utr_diff": 0.7300000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 19.4,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": 5080,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.18295454545455,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 38.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
    "utr_advantage": 5.8283433133732565,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 55,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.9652730660692823,
    "rank_advantage": 92,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.25,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 21.931818181818187,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.122954545454533,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 16,
    "serve_quality_diff": 16.112704545454548,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.461363636363636,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 12.147954545454546,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.563142586754671,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.410086464325533,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 65.03382974447405,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.720000000000006,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.4375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 43.33900000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 65.79545454545456,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.18981818181818177,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15450000000000008,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.307909604519768,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}