Elina Svitolina vs Cristina Bucsa
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elina Svitolina
Elina …: 77,9% Cristina …: 22,2%
¿Por qué Elina Svitolina?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,35 (+0,33) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elina … Cristina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,21 4,90 82,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,51 77,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Elina …: -1,1% Cristina …: +1,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/27 = 63,0%
Cristina Bucsa
Ranking #52
UTR Rating 12,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #39
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 28/48 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 39,0000
rank_ratio 4,2500
log_rank_ratio 1,4469
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1722,0000
best_rank_diff 47,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 4,6296
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 3,4181
surface_matches_ratio 0,5625
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,9630
surface_wr_p2 58,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,2903
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,6923
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 48,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2593
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,7910
first_serve_won_diff 5,7262
second_serve_won_diff -0,9500
bp_saved_diff -2,4931
bp_converted_diff 0,0322
aces_per_match_diff 2,6065
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 32,4300
current_streak_diff 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 11,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9645
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9748
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 8,6026
serve_consistency_p2 15,8506
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 6,6987
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0906
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1223
elite_surface_amplifier 9,2593
UTR
utr_diff 0,3300
utr_p1 0,5518
utr_p2 0,5129
utr_advantage 2,6347
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23204
API ID 15372298
Gamdom ID 601056
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23204,
    "api_id": 15372298,
    "gamdom_id": 601056,
    "player1": "Elina Svitolina",
    "player2": "Cristina Bucsa",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T02:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.21,
      "p2": 4.9
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 4.69
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7785,
    "prob_p2": 0.2215,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7785,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 12.66,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 52,
      "utr_singles": 12.35,
      "utr_ranking": 39,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 48,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.66,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.35,
      "ranking": 39,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
    "utr_diff": 0.33000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 4.25,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 1722,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.49305555555555,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 59.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 2.6347305389221565,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 47,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.4469189829363254,
    "rank_advantage": 39,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 4.629629629629626,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.03217592592591245,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 48,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.791041666666679,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9747899159663865,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.606481481481482,
    "combined_confidence": 0.95,
    "current_streak_diff": 6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.726157407407413,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.60263287279385,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 15.850602927904264,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 6.698698995075575,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.9499999999999957,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5625,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 32.42999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 9.259259259259252,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09062962962962973,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1223333333333333,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.4181141439206,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}