Elina Svitolina vs Cristina Bucsa
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 06:50
18 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elina Svitolina
Elina …: 77,9%
Cristina …: 22,2%
¿Por qué Elina Svitolina?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,35
(+0,33)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elina … | Cristina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,50 | 83,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,21 | 4,90 | 82,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,28 | 4,51 | 77,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elina …: -1,1%
Cristina …: +1,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
17/27 = 63,0%
Cristina Bucsa
Ranking
#52
UTR Rating
12,35 Pro
UTR Ranking
#39
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
28/48 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 39,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,2500 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,4469 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1722,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 47,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 4,6296 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 3,4181 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5625 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,9630 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,2903 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,6923 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 48,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2593 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,7910 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,7262 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,9500 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,4931 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0322 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,6065 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 60,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 32,4300 | |
| current_streak_diff | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 11,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9645 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9748 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,6026 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 15,8506 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 6,6987 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0906 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1223 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 9,2593 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5518 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5129 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,6347 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23204
API ID
15372298
Gamdom ID
601056
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23204,
"api_id": 15372298,
"gamdom_id": 601056,
"player1": "Elina Svitolina",
"player2": "Cristina Bucsa",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T02:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.21,
"p2": 4.9
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.18,
"p2": 4.69
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7785,
"prob_p2": 0.2215,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7785,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 12.66,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 52,
"utr_singles": 12.35,
"utr_ranking": 39,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 28,
"wr_surface_total": 48,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 39,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
"utr_diff": 0.33000000000000007,
"rank_ratio": 4.25,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": 1722,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.49305555555555,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 59.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": 2.6347305389221565,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 47,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.4469189829363254,
"rank_advantage": 39,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": 4.629629629629626,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.03217592592591245,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 48,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.791041666666679,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9747899159663865,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.606481481481482,
"combined_confidence": 0.95,
"current_streak_diff": 6,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.726157407407413,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.60263287279385,
"serve_consistency_p2": 15.850602927904264,
"surface_rank_synergy": 6.698698995075575,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.9499999999999957,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5625,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 32.42999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 9.259259259259252,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09062962962962973,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1223333333333333,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.4181141439206,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}