Elise Mertens vs Lanlana Tararudee
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 12:45
19 Ene 2026, 12:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elise Mertens
Elise …: 74,9%
Lanlana …: 25,1%
¿Por qué Elise Mertens?
UTR 12,45 vs 11,89
(+0,66)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elise … | Lanlana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,22 | 4,33 | 82,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,27 | 4,20 | 78,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,34 | 3,98 | 74,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elise …: -3,1%
Lanlana …: +3,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Lanlana Tararudee
Ranking
#131
UTR Rating
11,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#132
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
4/10 = 40,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 110,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,2381 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,8307 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1407,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 119,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 15,1724 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,1818 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,9000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 42,8571 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 10,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1034 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,4621 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,4310 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -34,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -13,6710 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,0937 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7099 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 27,7758 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0583 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0100 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 30,3448 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,6600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4447 | |
| utr_advantage | 5,4500 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23205
API ID
15373431
Gamdom ID
601586
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23205,
"api_id": 15373431,
"gamdom_id": 601586,
"player1": "Elise Mertens",
"player2": "Lanlana Tararudee",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T08:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.22,
"p2": 4.333333333333334
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.27,
"p2": 4.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 3.93
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.749,
"prob_p2": 0.251,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.749,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 12.45,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 131,
"utr_singles": 11.89,
"utr_ranking": 132,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 40.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 10,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.45,
"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.89,
"ranking": 132,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5223529411764706,
"utr_p2": 0.4447058823529411,
"utr_diff": 0.6600000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 6.238095238095238,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 1407,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.599999999999994,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -34.00000000000001,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
"surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
"utr_advantage": 5.450041288191579,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 119,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.8306748854777286,
"rank_advantage": 110,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 15.172413793103445,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 10,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.462068965517247,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.431034482758621,
"combined_confidence": 0.7,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.6000000000000085,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.093711131760443,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.709889071718781,
"surface_rank_synergy": 27.775756883110358,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.857142857142854,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.9,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -13.670999999999992,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 30.34482758620689,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05827586206896551,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.010000000000000009,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.18181818181818,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}