Elsa Jacquemot vs Marta Kostyuk
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 06:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marta Kostyuk
Elsa …: 45,7% Marta …: 54,3%
¿Por qué Marta Kostyuk?
UTR 11,94 vs 12,61 (-0,54) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elsa … Marta … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 7,00 1,10 14,3%
Gamdom 9,00 1,09 11,1%
IA Fair Odds 2,19 1,84 45,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Elsa …: +32,1% Marta …: -32,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elsa Jacquemot
Ranking #60
UTR Rating 11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -38,0000
rank_ratio 0,3448
log_rank_ratio -1,0647
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -913,0000
best_rank_diff -39,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 1,4286
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,9295
surface_matches_ratio 0,8000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 62,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,5385
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,4874
first_serve_won_diff -0,5643
second_serve_won_diff -1,5300
bp_saved_diff -2,6650
bp_converted_diff 1,4329
aces_per_match_diff 1,1143
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -63,3350
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8824
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 8,8932
serve_consistency_p2 6,3613
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,5210
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1809
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0906
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5400
utr_p1 0,4694
utr_p2 0,5329
utr_advantage -4,4046
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23206
API ID 15372290
Gamdom ID 601078
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23206,
    "api_id": 15372290,
    "gamdom_id": 601078,
    "player1": "Elsa Jacquemot",
    "player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T02:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 7.0,
      "p2": 1.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 9.0,
      "p2": 1.09
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 7.91,
      "p2": 1.08
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4573,
    "prob_p2": 0.5427,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5427,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 60,
      "utr_singles": 11.94,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 12.61,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.94,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.61,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.46941176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
    "utr_diff": -0.5399999999999991,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3448275862068966,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -913,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.664999999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": -4.404567699836861,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -39,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.0647107369924282,
    "rank_advantage": -38,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 1.4285714285714377,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.432857142857138,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.4874285714285804,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8823529411764706,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.1142857142857139,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.5642857142857025,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.893242054353097,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.361347377281641,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.5210153385606215,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.529999999999994,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -63.335,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.18085714285714294,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09057142857142852,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.929487179487178,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}