Elsa Jacquemot vs Marta Kostyuk
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 06:20
18 Ene 2026, 06:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marta Kostyuk
Elsa …: 45,7%
Marta …: 54,3%
¿Por qué Marta Kostyuk?
UTR 11,94 vs 12,61
(-0,54)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elsa … | Marta … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 7,00 | 1,10 | 14,3% |
| Gamdom | 9,00 | 1,09 | 11,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,19 | 1,84 | 45,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elsa …: +32,1%
Marta …: -32,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elsa Jacquemot
Ranking
#60
UTR Rating
11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking
#122
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking
#14
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -38,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3448 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0647 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -913,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -39,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 1,4286 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,9295 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,5385 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,4874 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,5643 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,5300 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,6650 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,4329 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,1143 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -63,3350 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8824 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7569 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8932 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,3613 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,5210 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1809 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0906 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4694 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5329 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,4046 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23206
API ID
15372290
Gamdom ID
601078
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23206,
"api_id": 15372290,
"gamdom_id": 601078,
"player1": "Elsa Jacquemot",
"player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T02:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 7.0,
"p2": 1.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 9.0,
"p2": 1.09
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 7.91,
"p2": 1.08
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4573,
"prob_p2": 0.5427,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5427,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 60,
"utr_singles": 11.94,
"utr_ranking": 122,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 12.61,
"utr_ranking": 14,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.94,
"ranking": 122,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.61,
"ranking": 14,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
"utr_diff": -0.5399999999999991,
"rank_ratio": 0.3448275862068966,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -913,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.664999999999999,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -50.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": -4.404567699836861,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -39,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.0647107369924282,
"rank_advantage": -38,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": 1.4285714285714377,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.432857142857138,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.4874285714285804,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8823529411764706,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.1142857142857139,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.5642857142857025,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.893242054353097,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.361347377281641,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.5210153385606215,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.529999999999994,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -63.335,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.18085714285714294,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09057142857142852,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.929487179487178,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}