Emiliana Arango vs McCartney Kessler
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
McCartney Kessler
Emiliana …: 39,2%
McCartney …: 60,8%
¿Por qué McCartney Kessler?
UTR 11,90 vs 12,39
(-0,42)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Emiliana … | McCartney … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 5,00 | 1,17 | 20,0% |
| Gamdom | 5,40 | 1,19 | 18,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,55 | 1,64 | 39,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Emiliana …: +20,2%
McCartney …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emiliana Arango
Ranking
#51
UTR Rating
11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#124
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
17/31 = 54,8%
McCartney Kessler
Ranking
#37
UTR Rating
12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -14,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7200 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3285 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -186,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,4470 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,7578 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7381 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 54,8387 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,0435 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0968 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,7012 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,5000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,8000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,1000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,8556 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -14,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -16,2710 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5556 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7901 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6446 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7002 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,1034 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0624 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1289 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4682 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5176 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,4454 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23207
API ID
15372320
Gamdom ID
601061
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23207,
"api_id": 15372320,
"gamdom_id": 601061,
"player1": "Emiliana Arango",
"player2": "McCartney Kessler",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 5.0,
"p2": 1.17
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 5.4,
"p2": 1.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.85,
"p2": 1.18
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3917,
"prob_p2": 0.6083,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6083,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 51,
"utr_singles": 11.9,
"utr_ranking": 124,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 54.83870967741935,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 37,
"utr_singles": 12.39,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 124,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5176470588235295,
"utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.72,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 8.0,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": -186,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.5000000000000071,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -14.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 54.83870967741935,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": -3.445447087776865,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -16,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.3285040669720361,
"rank_advantage": -14,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.44700460829494,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.1000000000000014,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 42,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.701213517665131,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7901234567901234,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.8556067588325653,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.5,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0967741935483871,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.644563809482853,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.700220282875529,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.1033794345284544,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.285714285714285,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.8000000000000043,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7380952380952381,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -16.271000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06238709677419352,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1288571428571429,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.757763975155285,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}