Emiliana Arango vs McCartney Kessler
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
McCartney Kessler
Emiliana …: 39,2% McCartney …: 60,8%
¿Por qué McCartney Kessler?
UTR 11,90 vs 12,39 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Emiliana … McCartney … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 5,00 1,17 20,0%
Gamdom 5,40 1,19 18,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,55 1,64 39,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Emiliana …: +20,2% McCartney …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emiliana Arango
Ranking #51
UTR Rating 11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #124
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 17/31 = 54,8%
McCartney Kessler
Ranking #37
UTR Rating 12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 27/42 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -14,0000
rank_ratio 0,7200
log_rank_ratio -0,3285
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -186,0000
best_rank_diff -16,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,4470
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,7578
surface_matches_ratio 0,7381
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 54,8387
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,2857
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,0435
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 42,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0968
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,7012
first_serve_won_diff -5,5000
second_serve_won_diff -0,8000
bp_saved_diff -0,5000
bp_converted_diff 3,1000
aces_per_match_diff -0,8556
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff -14,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -16,2710
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5556
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7901
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 6,6446
serve_consistency_p2 6,7002
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,1034
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0624
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1289
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,4682
utr_p2 0,5176
utr_advantage -3,4454
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23207
API ID 15372320
Gamdom ID 601061
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23207,
    "api_id": 15372320,
    "gamdom_id": 601061,
    "player1": "Emiliana Arango",
    "player2": "McCartney Kessler",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 5.0,
      "p2": 1.17
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.4,
      "p2": 1.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.85,
      "p2": 1.18
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3917,
    "prob_p2": 0.6083,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6083,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 51,
      "utr_singles": 11.9,
      "utr_ranking": 124,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.83870967741935,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 37,
      "utr_singles": 12.39,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.9,
      "ranking": 124,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.39,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5176470588235295,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.72,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -186,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.5000000000000071,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -14.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 54.83870967741935,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": -3.445447087776865,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -16,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.3285040669720361,
    "rank_advantage": -14,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.44700460829494,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.1000000000000014,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 42,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.701213517665131,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7901234567901234,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8556067588325653,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0967741935483871,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.644563809482853,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.700220282875529,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.1033794345284544,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.285714285714285,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.04347826086957,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.8000000000000043,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7380952380952381,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -16.271000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06238709677419352,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1288571428571429,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.757763975155285,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}