Hailey Baptiste vs Marketa Vondrousova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 07:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marketa Vondrousova
Hailey …: 46,8% Marketa …: 53,2%
¿Por qué Marketa Vondrousova?
UTR 12,03 vs 12,61 (-0,45) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Hailey … Marketa … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,33 29,4%
Gamdom 4,20 1,26 23,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,13 1,88 46,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Hailey …: +18,7% Marketa …: -18,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hailey Baptiste
Ranking #70
UTR Rating 12,03 Pro
UTR Ranking #84
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 12/26 = 46,2%
Marketa Vondrousova
Ranking #34
UTR Rating 12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #13
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/18 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -32,0000
rank_ratio 0,5152
log_rank_ratio -0,6633
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -407,0000
best_rank_diff -41,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,4017
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,7778
surface_matches_ratio 1,4444
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 46,1538
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 46,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 18,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0769
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 0,6000
combined_confidence 0,7333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,4262
first_serve_won_diff 0,2000
second_serve_won_diff 0,5538
bp_saved_diff 3,7154
bp_converted_diff 1,0308
aces_per_match_diff -1,3462
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff -42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -42,4550
current_streak_diff -6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6339
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5714
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 5,1925
serve_consistency_p2 9,5594
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 6,2361
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0065
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0236
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4500
utr_p1 0,4953
utr_p2 0,5482
utr_advantage -3,6188
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23208
API ID 15372304
Gamdom ID 601059
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23208,
    "api_id": 15372304,
    "gamdom_id": 601059,
    "player1": "Hailey Baptiste",
    "player2": "Marketa Vondrousova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T03:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.2,
      "p2": 1.26
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.92,
      "p2": 1.25
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4684,
    "prob_p2": 0.5316,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5316,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": 12.03,
      "utr_ranking": 84,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 46.15384615384615,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 34,
      "utr_singles": 12.61,
      "utr_ranking": 13,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.03,
      "ranking": 84,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.61,
      "ranking": 13,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.49529411764705894,
    "utr_p2": 0.548235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.4499999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5151515151515151,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -407,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.7153846153846146,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -42.00000000000001,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6,
    "surface_wr_p1": 46.15384615384615,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -3.618817852834735,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -41,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.6632942174102642,
    "rank_advantage": -32,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.401709401709404,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.0307692307692236,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 18,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.426153846153852,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6339285714285714,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.3461538461538458,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.19999999999998863,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.07692307692307693,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.192525408058418,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.559427339730304,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 6.236099479925562,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.5538461538461448,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4444444444444444,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -42.45500000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.006461538461538463,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.023555555555555552,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.777777777777776,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}