Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Zakharova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 07:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Jessica …: 92,8% Anastasia …: 7,2%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,75 vs 11,88 (+0,87) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jessica … Anastasia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,07 9,00 93,5%
Gamdom 1,07 10,00 93,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,08 13,93 92,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Jessica …: +3,4% Anastasia …: -3,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Anastasia Zakharova
Ranking #105
UTR Rating 11,88 Pro
UTR Ranking #134
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/32 = 46,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 97,0000
rank_ratio 17,1667
log_rank_ratio 2,8430
rank_tier_advantage 4,0000
points_diff 4711,0000
best_rank_diff 76,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 22,5128
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 20,7023
surface_matches_ratio 1,5313
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,3878
surface_wr_p2 46,8750
surface_wr_p1_stable 67,9245
surface_wr_p2_stable 47,2222
p1_surface_matches 49,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3878
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,3090
first_serve_won_diff 6,9299
second_serve_won_diff 3,2513
bp_saved_diff 9,7942
bp_converted_diff -0,7826
aces_per_match_diff 0,9343
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 43,7550
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 15,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2132
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6604
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3571
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 8,4903
serve_consistency_p2 14,7429
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 64,0031
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0969
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0657
elite_surface_amplifier 90,0510
UTR
utr_diff 0,8700
utr_p1 0,5635
utr_p2 0,4612
utr_advantage 7,0417
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23210
API ID 15372309
Gamdom ID 601044
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23210,
    "api_id": 15372309,
    "gamdom_id": 601044,
    "player1": "Jessica Pegula",
    "player2": "Anastasia Zakharova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T03:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.07,
      "p2": 9.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.07,
      "p2": 10.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.07,
      "p2": 8.74
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9282,
    "prob_p2": 0.0718,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9282,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 105,
      "utr_singles": 11.88,
      "utr_ranking": 134,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 46.875,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.88,
      "ranking": 134,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5635294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.4611764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.8699999999999992,
    "rank_ratio": 17.166666666666668,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": 4711,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.794196428571432,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 37.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
    "surface_wr_p2": 46.875,
    "utr_advantage": 7.041683528935646,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 76,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.842969519001581,
    "rank_advantage": 97,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 22.512755102040813,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.7825892857142804,
    "p1_surface_matches": 49,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.3089795918367315,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.660377358490566,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.9343112244897958,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.929910714285718,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.490259491095946,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 14.742907248767795,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 64.00307654384936,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 47.22222222222222,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.2513392857142875,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.53125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 43.75500000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 90.05102040816325,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 15,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09687755102040818,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.06574999999999998,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.702306079664574,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}