Julia Grabher vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 05:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Julia …: 18,1% Elisabetta …: 81,9%
¿Por qué Elisabetta Cocciaretto?
UTR 11,89 vs 12,14 (-0,13) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Julia … Elisabetta … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,28 26,7%
Gamdom 4,10 1,27 24,4%
IA Fair Odds 5,54 1,22 18,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Julia …: -7,4% Elisabetta …: +7,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Julia Grabher
Ranking #95
UTR Rating 11,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #133
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 2/10 = 20,0%
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Ranking #56
UTR Rating 12,14 Pro
UTR Ranking #70
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 14/30 = 46,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -12,0000
rank_ratio 0,8696
log_rank_ratio -0,1398
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -50,0000
best_rank_diff -25,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -26,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,2493
surface_matches_ratio 0,3333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 20,0000
surface_wr_p2 46,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 28,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 47,0588
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2910
first_serve_won_diff 0,8500
second_serve_won_diff -5,1133
bp_saved_diff -1,5200
bp_converted_diff -13,1867
aces_per_match_diff 1,2000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -41,2200
current_streak_diff -6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 7,0000
match_load_diff -4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,1724
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5733
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1429
serve_consistency_p1 12,4833
serve_consistency_p2 5,5300
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,7270
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2880
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0453
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1300
utr_p1 0,4682
utr_p2 0,4835
utr_advantage -1,0793
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23211
API ID 15372332
Gamdom ID 601032
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23211,
    "api_id": 15372332,
    "gamdom_id": 601032,
    "player1": "Julia Grabher",
    "player2": "Elisabetta Cocciaretto",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T01:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.1,
      "p2": 1.27
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.85,
      "p2": 1.25
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1806,
    "prob_p2": 0.8194,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8194,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 95,
      "utr_singles": 11.89,
      "utr_ranking": 133,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 20.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 56,
      "utr_singles": 12.14,
      "utr_ranking": 70,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 46.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.89,
      "ranking": 133,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.14,
      "ranking": 70,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4682352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.4835294117647058,
    "utr_diff": -0.129999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8695652173913043,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -50,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.5200000000000031,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 7,
    "momentum_diff": -59.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 20.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 46.666666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": -1.079286010792852,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -25,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.13976194237515874,
    "rank_advantage": -12,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.14285714285714285,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -4,
    "surface_wr_diff": -26.666666666666664,
    "bp_converted_diff": -13.186666666666667,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.2909999999999897,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.1724137931034483,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5733333333333334,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.8499999999999943,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.48334962493301,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.529983708864779,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.7269851300042327,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 28.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 47.05882352941176,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.113333333333337,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -41.22,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.288,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04533333333333339,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.249299719887954,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}