Karolina Muchova vs Jaqueline Cristian
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 07:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karolina Muchova
Karolina …: 56,2% Jaqueline …: 43,8%
¿Por qué Karolina Muchova?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Karolina … Jaqueline … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,20 5,20 83,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,78 2,28 56,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Karolina …: -22,8% Jaqueline …: +22,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karolina Muchova
Ranking #19
UTR Rating 12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #18
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Jaqueline Cristian
Ranking #35
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 19/34 = 55,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 18,0000
rank_ratio 1,9474
log_rank_ratio 0,6665
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 759,0000
best_rank_diff 29,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,9825
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,1515
surface_matches_ratio 1,0882
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,8649
surface_wr_p2 55,8824
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,4146
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,2632
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2973
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,7981
first_serve_won_diff 3,0886
second_serve_won_diff 1,3495
bp_saved_diff 5,2704
bp_converted_diff -2,7919
aces_per_match_diff 1,4245
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 11,7000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0982
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7018
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 6,8994
serve_consistency_p2 6,5400
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,9867
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1306
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0768
elite_surface_amplifier 8,9825
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,5376
utr_p2 0,5376
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23212
API ID 15372296
Gamdom ID 601047
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23212,
    "api_id": 15372296,
    "gamdom_id": 601047,
    "player1": "Karolina Muchova",
    "player2": "Jaqueline Cristian",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T03:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 5.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 4.67
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5619,
    "prob_p2": 0.4381,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5619,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 19,
      "utr_singles": 12.57,
      "utr_ranking": 18,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 35,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.88235294117647,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.57,
      "ranking": 18,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.5376470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.9473684210526316,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 759,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.270429252782186,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": -2.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.86486486486487,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.88235294117647,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 29,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.666478933477784,
    "rank_advantage": 18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.9825119236884,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.7918918918919005,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.798100158982514,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.098159509202454,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7017543859649122,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.4244833068362484,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.0885532591414915,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2972972972972973,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.8993746929623025,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.540031881526331,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.986654966851322,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.26315789473685,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.349523052464228,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.088235294117647,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 11.699999999999989,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 8.9825119236884,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13064864864864867,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07682352941176473,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.151476251604613,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}