Laura Siegemund vs Liudmila Samsonova
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 11:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Liudmila Samsonova
Laura …: 36,2% Liudmila …: 63,8%
¿Por qué Liudmila Samsonova?
UTR 12,14 vs 12,36 (-0,21) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Laura … Liudmila … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,20 22,2%
Gamdom 4,40 1,25 22,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,76 1,57 36,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Laura …: +15,1% Liudmila …: -15,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Laura Siegemund
Ranking #48
UTR Rating 12,14 Pro
UTR Ranking #67
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Liudmila Samsonova
Ranking #18
UTR Rating 12,36 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/27 = 48,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -29,0000
rank_ratio 0,3830
log_rank_ratio -0,9598
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -951,0000
best_rank_diff -15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -0,1481
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,0964
surface_matches_ratio 0,9259
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,0000
surface_wr_p2 48,1481
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,2759
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,3871
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0400
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,8267
first_serve_won_diff -9,7000
second_serve_won_diff 2,3000
bp_saved_diff -6,8000
bp_converted_diff -4,4000
aces_per_match_diff -3,3333
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 4,7500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7102
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6290
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5714
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,7914
serve_consistency_p2 3,3517
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,1422
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0090
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0475
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2100
utr_p1 0,4882
utr_p2 0,5129
utr_advantage -1,7136
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23215
API ID 15372327
Gamdom ID 601038
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23215,
    "api_id": 15372327,
    "gamdom_id": 601038,
    "player1": "Laura Siegemund",
    "player2": "Liudmila Samsonova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T07:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.4,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.1,
      "p2": 1.23
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3618,
    "prob_p2": 0.6382,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6382,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 48,
      "utr_singles": 12.14,
      "utr_ranking": 67,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 18,
      "utr_singles": 12.36,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.14,
      "ranking": 67,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.36,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4882352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
    "utr_diff": -0.20999999999999908,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3829787234042553,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -951,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.799999999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 48.148148148148145,
    "utr_advantage": -1.713586291309662,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.9597758438138939,
    "rank_advantage": -29,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -0.14814814814814525,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.399999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.82666666666666,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7102272727272727,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6290322580645161,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.333333333333333,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -9.699999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.791441417712507,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.351747462165311,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.14218901389835187,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.38709677419355,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.3000000000000043,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9259259259259259,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 4.75,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.009000000000000008,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04751851851851857,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.09640341119763084,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}