Magda Linette vs Emma Navarro
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emma Navarro
Magda …: 37,1%
Emma …: 62,9%
¿Por qué Emma Navarro?
UTR 12,11 vs 12,31
(-0,24)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Magda … | Emma … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,33 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,40 | 1,36 | 29,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,69 | 1,59 | 37,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Magda …: +9,0%
Emma …: -9,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Magda Linette
Ranking
#50
UTR Rating
12,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#75
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
15/31 = 48,4%
Emma Navarro
Ranking
#15
UTR Rating
12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking
#41
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
19/33 = 57,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -38,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2830 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2622 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1354,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -11,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,1887 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,1853 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9394 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,5758 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,7568 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0323 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,3853 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,7358 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,7900 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,6718 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,3490 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,0772 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 10,2350 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8451 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6980 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,7988 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,1876 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 11,5983 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0219 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0378 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5141 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,9592 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23221
API ID
15372302
Gamdom ID
601062
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23221,
"api_id": 15372302,
"gamdom_id": 601062,
"player1": "Magda Linette",
"player2": "Emma Navarro",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.33
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.36
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.21,
"p2": 1.34
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3714,
"prob_p2": 0.6286,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6286,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 50,
"utr_singles": 12.11,
"utr_ranking": 75,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 15,
"utr_singles": 12.31,
"utr_ranking": 41,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 75,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 41,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5141176470588235,
"utr_diff": -0.23999999999999844,
"rank_ratio": 0.2830188679245283,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -1354,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.671847507331378,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.57575757575758,
"utr_advantage": -1.9591836734693753,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -11,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.262241712449912,
"rank_advantage": -38,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.188660801564026,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.348973607038126,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.385327468230692,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8450704225352113,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6979591836734694,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.0772238514173997,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.7357771260997055,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.798789993089183,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.187608729246641,
"surface_rank_synergy": 11.598310945287556,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.75675675675676,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.7900293255132027,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9393939393939394,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 10.235,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.021870967741935532,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03775757575757577,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.185328185328189,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}