Magda Linette vs Emma Navarro
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emma Navarro
Magda …: 37,1% Emma …: 62,9%
¿Por qué Emma Navarro?
UTR 12,11 vs 12,31 (-0,24) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Magda … Emma … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,33 29,4%
Gamdom 3,40 1,36 29,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,69 1,59 37,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Magda …: +9,0% Emma …: -9,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Magda Linette
Ranking #50
UTR Rating 12,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #75
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 15/31 = 48,4%
Emma Navarro
Ranking #15
UTR Rating 12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking #41
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 19/33 = 57,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -38,0000
rank_ratio 0,2830
log_rank_ratio -1,2622
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1354,0000
best_rank_diff -11,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,1887
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,1853
surface_matches_ratio 0,9394
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,3871
surface_wr_p2 57,5758
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,7568
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,3853
first_serve_won_diff 2,7358
second_serve_won_diff -3,7900
bp_saved_diff 4,6718
bp_converted_diff -8,3490
aces_per_match_diff 2,0772
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 10,2350
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8451
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6980
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 4,7988
serve_consistency_p2 6,1876
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 11,5983
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0219
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0378
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2400
utr_p1 0,4859
utr_p2 0,5141
utr_advantage -1,9592
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23221
API ID 15372302
Gamdom ID 601062
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23221,
    "api_id": 15372302,
    "gamdom_id": 601062,
    "player1": "Magda Linette",
    "player2": "Emma Navarro",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.36
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.21,
      "p2": 1.34
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3714,
    "prob_p2": 0.6286,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6286,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 50,
      "utr_singles": 12.11,
      "utr_ranking": 75,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 15,
      "utr_singles": 12.31,
      "utr_ranking": 41,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.11,
      "ranking": 75,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.31,
      "ranking": 41,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.48588235294117654,
    "utr_p2": 0.5141176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.23999999999999844,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2830188679245283,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -1354,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.671847507331378,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.57575757575758,
    "utr_advantage": -1.9591836734693753,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -11,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.262241712449912,
    "rank_advantage": -38,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.188660801564026,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.348973607038126,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.385327468230692,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8450704225352113,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6979591836734694,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.0772238514173997,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.7357771260997055,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.798789993089183,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.187608729246641,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 11.598310945287556,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.75675675675676,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.7900293255132027,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9393939393939394,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 10.235,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.021870967741935532,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03775757575757577,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.185328185328189,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}