Maria Sakkari vs Leolia Jeanjean
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:30
18 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maria Sakkari
Maria …: 53,5%
Leolia …: 46,5%
¿Por qué Maria Sakkari?
UTR 12,17 vs 11,85
(+0,28)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maria … | Leolia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,22 | 4,33 | 82,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,22 | 4,80 | 82,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,87 | 2,15 | 53,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maria …: -24,6%
Leolia …: +24,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Sakkari
Ranking
#53
UTR Rating
12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking
#60
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
15/35 = 42,9%
Leolia Jeanjean
Ranking
#103
UTR Rating
11,85 Pro
UTR Ranking
#139
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
13/24 = 54,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 49,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,9423 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,6639 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 373,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 88,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -11,3095 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,9835 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4583 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 54,1667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,5897 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 53,5714 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 24,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,0765 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,9229 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,5343 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,9114 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,5143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,8226 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 16,3300 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 11,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6810 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5946 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4444 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,2888 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,2571 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -7,5081 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1204 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0907 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -11,3095 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4929 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4600 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,3237 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23223
API ID
15372308
Gamdom ID
601051
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23223,
"api_id": 15372308,
"gamdom_id": 601051,
"player1": "Maria Sakkari",
"player2": "Leolia Jeanjean",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-18T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.22,
"p2": 4.333333333333334
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.22,
"p2": 4.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.21,
"p2": 4.34
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5348,
"prob_p2": 0.4652,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5348,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 53,
"utr_singles": 12.17,
"utr_ranking": 60,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 103,
"utr_singles": 11.85,
"utr_ranking": 139,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 54.166666666666664,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 24,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 60,
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"is_pro": true
},
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"ranking": 139,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.27999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 1.9423076923076923,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 10.0,
"points_diff": 373,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.91142857142858,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 18.000000000000004,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.8,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 54.166666666666664,
"utr_advantage": 2.323651452282152,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 88,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.663876798259832,
"rank_advantage": 49,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -11.30952380952381,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.5142857142857125,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 24,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.0764761904761997,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6810344827586207,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5945945945945946,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.8226190476190478,
"combined_confidence": 0.9,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.922857142857147,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.288796269939892,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.257133958910995,
"surface_rank_synergy": -7.508130456510005,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.58974358974359,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.57142857142857,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.534285714285716,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4583333333333333,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 16.330000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -11.30952380952381,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.12042857142857138,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09066666666666656,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.98351648351648,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}