Maria Sakkari vs Leolia Jeanjean
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
18 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maria Sakkari
Maria …: 53,5% Leolia …: 46,5%
¿Por qué Maria Sakkari?
UTR 12,17 vs 11,85 (+0,28) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Leolia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,22 4,33 82,0%
Gamdom 1,22 4,80 82,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,87 2,15 53,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Maria …: -24,6% Leolia …: +24,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Sakkari
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking #60
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/35 = 42,9%
Leolia Jeanjean
Ranking #103
UTR Rating 11,85 Pro
UTR Ranking #139
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/24 = 54,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 49,0000
rank_ratio 1,9423
log_rank_ratio 0,6639
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 373,0000
best_rank_diff 88,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -11,3095
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,9835
surface_matches_ratio 1,4583
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 54,1667
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,5897
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,5714
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 24,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8000
combined_confidence 0,9000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,0765
first_serve_won_diff -2,9229
second_serve_won_diff -7,5343
bp_saved_diff -3,9114
bp_converted_diff -1,5143
aces_per_match_diff 0,8226
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff 18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 16,3300
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 11,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6810
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5946
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 9,2888
serve_consistency_p2 10,2571
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -7,5081
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1204
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0907
elite_surface_amplifier -11,3095
UTR
utr_diff 0,2800
utr_p1 0,4929
utr_p2 0,4600
utr_advantage 2,3237
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23223
API ID 15372308
Gamdom ID 601051
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23223,
    "api_id": 15372308,
    "gamdom_id": 601051,
    "player1": "Maria Sakkari",
    "player2": "Leolia Jeanjean",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-18T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.22,
      "p2": 4.333333333333334
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.22,
      "p2": 4.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.21,
      "p2": 4.34
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5348,
    "prob_p2": 0.4652,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5348,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 12.17,
      "utr_ranking": 60,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 103,
      "utr_singles": 11.85,
      "utr_ranking": 139,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.166666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.17,
      "ranking": 60,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.85,
      "ranking": 139,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.49294117647058816,
    "utr_p2": 0.46,
    "utr_diff": 0.27999999999999936,
    "rank_ratio": 1.9423076923076923,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": 373,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.91142857142858,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 18.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 54.166666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": 2.323651452282152,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 88,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.663876798259832,
    "rank_advantage": 49,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -11.30952380952381,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.5142857142857125,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 24,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.0764761904761997,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6810344827586207,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5945945945945946,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8226190476190478,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.922857142857147,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.288796269939892,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.257133958910995,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -7.508130456510005,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.58974358974359,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.57142857142857,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.534285714285716,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4583333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 16.330000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -11.30952380952381,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 11,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.12042857142857138,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.09066666666666656,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.98351648351648,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}