Rebecca Sramkova vs Jelena Ostapenko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 10:10
20 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jelena Ostapenko
Rebecca …: 46,8%
Jelena …: 53,2%
¿Por qué Jelena Ostapenko?
UTR 12,02 vs 12,10
(-0,11)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Rebecca … | Jelena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,91 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,93 | 1,95 | 51,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,14 | 1,88 | 46,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Rebecca …: -3,2%
Jelena …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Rebecca Sramkova
Ranking
#73
UTR Rating
12,02 Pro
UTR Ranking
#101
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
15/36 = 41,7%
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
8/21 = 38,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -48,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0986 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -827,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -28,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,5714 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,1250 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,7143 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 41,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 38,0952 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 42,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,4519 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,6333 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,5333 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,4333 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,7333 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,5476 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 30,6900 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4038 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7374 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2727 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,1802 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 22,0004 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,9236 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0353 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1670 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4694 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4824 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,9132 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23232
API ID
15372318
Gamdom ID
601036
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23232,
"api_id": 15372318,
"gamdom_id": 601036,
"player1": "Rebecca Sramkova",
"player2": "Jelena Ostapenko",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-20T06:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9100000000000001,
"p2": 1.9100000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.93,
"p2": 1.95
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.88,
"p2": 1.91
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4676,
"prob_p2": 0.5324,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5324,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 73,
"utr_singles": 12.02,
"utr_ranking": 101,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 12.1,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.02,
"ranking": 101,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.1,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
"utr_diff": -0.10999999999999943,
"rank_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": -827,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.433333333333344,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 40.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7,
"surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
"surface_wr_p2": 38.095238095238095,
"utr_advantage": -0.9132420091324154,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -28,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.0986122886681098,
"rank_advantage": -48,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2727272727272727,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.5714285714285765,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.733333333333334,
"p1_surface_matches": 36,
"p2_surface_matches": 21,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.451904761904764,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.40384615384615385,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7373737373737373,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.5476190476190474,
"combined_confidence": 0.85,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.63333333333334,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.180228314148225,
"serve_consistency_p2": 22.000384780165227,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.9236153166718264,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.5333333333333314,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.7142857142857142,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 30.69000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03533333333333322,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1670476190476191,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.125,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}