Rebecca Sramkova vs Jelena Ostapenko
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
20 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jelena Ostapenko
Rebecca …: 46,8% Jelena …: 53,2%
¿Por qué Jelena Ostapenko?
UTR 12,02 vs 12,10 (-0,11) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Rebecca … Jelena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 1,93 1,95 51,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,14 1,88 46,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Rebecca …: -3,2% Jelena …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Rebecca Sramkova
Ranking #73
UTR Rating 12,02 Pro
UTR Ranking #101
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 15/36 = 41,7%
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 8/21 = 38,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -48,0000
rank_ratio 0,3333
log_rank_ratio -1,0986
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -827,0000
best_rank_diff -28,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,5714
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,1250
surface_matches_ratio 1,7143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,6667
surface_wr_p2 38,0952
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 36,0000
p2_surface_matches 21,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7000
combined_confidence 0,8500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,4519
first_serve_won_diff -5,6333
second_serve_won_diff 1,5333
bp_saved_diff 4,4333
bp_converted_diff -5,7333
aces_per_match_diff -0,5476
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 30,6900
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4038
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7374
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2727
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 11,1802
serve_consistency_p2 22,0004
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,9236
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0353
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1670
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1100
utr_p1 0,4694
utr_p2 0,4824
utr_advantage -0,9132
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23232
API ID 15372318
Gamdom ID 601036
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23232,
    "api_id": 15372318,
    "gamdom_id": 601036,
    "player1": "Rebecca Sramkova",
    "player2": "Jelena Ostapenko",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-20T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.93,
      "p2": 1.95
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.88,
      "p2": 1.91
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4676,
    "prob_p2": 0.5324,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5324,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 73,
      "utr_singles": 12.02,
      "utr_ranking": 101,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 12.1,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.02,
      "ranking": 101,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.1,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.46941176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
    "utr_diff": -0.10999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": -827,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.433333333333344,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p2": 38.095238095238095,
    "utr_advantage": -0.9132420091324154,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -28,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.0986122886681098,
    "rank_advantage": -48,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2727272727272727,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.5714285714285765,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.733333333333334,
    "p1_surface_matches": 36,
    "p2_surface_matches": 21,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.451904761904764,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.40384615384615385,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7373737373737373,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.5476190476190474,
    "combined_confidence": 0.85,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.63333333333334,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.180228314148225,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 22.000384780165227,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.9236153166718264,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.5333333333333314,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.7142857142857142,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 30.69000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03533333333333322,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1670476190476191,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.125,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}